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View Diary: Pollsters Siding with Obama-- Should Poll Generic Dem Against GOP Candidates (26 comments)

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  •  This is what they always do when there is an (6+ / 0-)

    incumbent. It has nothing to do with favoring Obama.

    I'd like to see a poll with Feingold, Sanders, etc. against a generic Republican though. I think it would be eye opening for some of the people here.

    As to Kennedy, he was not the first to enter the primaries against Johnson, McCarthy was. Whether Kennedy would have won the nomination is unknown although Larry O'Brian, his campaign manager thought his chances were slim. Whether he would have won the general election if he had been nominated is also doubtful since the Wallace factor would still have been in play. Hard to see what states Kennedy would have carried that Humphrey didn't and Kennedy might have lost Texas which Humphrey carried.

    You can't scare me, I'm sticking to the Union - Woody Guthrie

    by sewaneepat on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:44:11 AM PDT

    •  McCarthy (0+ / 0-)

      Yes, I know.
      When McCarthy took 40% of the New Hampshire primary, that gave LBJ the message that he was not going to do very well.

      We've been discussing a similar possibility, that someone will run against Obama, pull strong, and that will send the message to Obama that he should step down. It would be nice if polls were run first, to get that picture early. It boggles my mind that so far 75% of dkos folk oppose even finding out.

      "too often, the head steals the heart's best blood."

      by robkallopednews on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:53:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And Nixon won the general. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Deep Texan, science nerd

        (Actually you know, Johnson did win NH, but only by a small amount,)

        It is unlikely that RFK would have gotten the nomination and even more unlikely that he would have won the Presidency. How do you think he would have done it? Were you of voting age in 1968? Do you remember George Wallace? Do you think RFK would have won Texas?

        You can't scare me, I'm sticking to the Union - Woody Guthrie

        by sewaneepat on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:59:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Kennedy would have cruised into the nomination (0+ / 0-)

          Johnson pulled out because he realistically saw the close vote as a repudiation of his candidacy.

          Now the poll is at 87% opposing finding out how any other democrat would poll against the republicans. Is this a denial driven Democratic death-wish?

          "too often, the head steals the heart's best blood."

          by robkallopednews on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 07:17:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  His campaign manager did not think so. (0+ / 0-)

            What makes you think so?  Again, I ask you even if he won the nomination, how would he have won the general? Are you basing this just on your opinion or do you have some idea how that might have come about? What state would he have carried that Humphrey did not? Do you think RFK would have carried Texas? Were you even alive in 1968?

            You can't scare me, I'm sticking to the Union - Woody Guthrie

            by sewaneepat on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 07:38:16 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Since you aren't going to look it up. (0+ / 0-)

            Here are some facts. There were only 13 states with primaries, only one of which was held after Bobby was assassinated.

            McCarthy won 6, including the only one after Kennedy was killed. Kennedy won 4, Johnson won 1, Smathers won 1, and Stephen Young won 1. You notice Humphrey won none though Young and Smathers were his surrogates. Interestingly, McCarthy trounced Kennedy in the Mass. primary.

            The other non-primary states were for Humphrey. It is extremely doubtful that these party bosses would have gone for Kennedy. He would have hardly "cruised" to the nomination.

            You can't scare me, I'm sticking to the Union - Woody Guthrie

            by sewaneepat on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:53:36 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Whether You've Been Discussing it Or Not... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        science nerd
        We've been discussing a similar possibility, that someone will run against Obama, pull strong, and that will send the message to Obama that he should step down.

        ...this is not a "Possibility*.

      •  How can this candidate do well if even here (0+ / 0-)

        most people oppose him/her? In actual primaries it will be even more brutal.

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