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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Ohio Democrats throw down redistricting gauntlet to Republicans (122 comments)

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  •  I don't know.... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, Odysseus, itskevin

    An article in the PD this morning suggests that, yes, they might, but the PD is a right leaning paper.  The Ohio GOP certainly feels that they will sell out, and we've seen other black legislators sell us out across the country.  I guess the national party is getting involved, which isn't a promising sign.  The third party that brought the offer forward is NAACP chair George Forbes.  Who knows what they are offering.

    The Ohio Dems want 7 Dem leaning or tossup districts.  Right now, there are 4.  I certainly hope the legislative congressional black caucus will shoot for at least 6.  They could get it, possibly, if they split up Fudge's district, too (maybe).  I know that Fudge is not happy with her district, 'cos she's ripe for a primary challenge from the akron finger of that district.

    I do know that both the national and ohio party really want a cinci district that's competitive.  I would suspect that the legislative black caucus would want the same, and more than competitive, really.  They would want a lock down there.  The worry is that they might give up the Columbus vote sink for that and leave everything 12-4 again.  I hope they don't sell out.

    There needs to be a supermajority of the legislative black caucus to (7 out of 10) approve any offer, so we at least have that going for us, and the national party is telling them that we need as many competitive districts as possible to get Obama re-elected.  Hopefully, that urging does not fall on deaf ears.

    What hurts us is that the LBC willl probably NOT want to go to court, 'cos they will have little leverage in court for that cinci (or other) districts.

    Hey, redistricting app experts.  Is there any way we can get 3 VRA districts?

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Thu Oct 20, 2011 at 05:55:03 AM PDT

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    •  I do want to add... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, Rube Goldberg, itskevin

      That Sandra Williams, the LBC chair, pissed off her colleagues in the caucus last month, when she got the legislative redistricters to change a state senate seat allocation in her favor and at the expense of several other LBC members.  She did it as a solo act and screwed over a few of her colleagues in the caucus.  Apparently, they are not happy.  So, we've got that going for us, at least.  All indications are that Williams would sell us out in a heartbeat if it would further her career somehow.  The others may not be so eager to see her advance.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Thu Oct 20, 2011 at 05:59:40 AM PDT

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      •  Primary time for people as vile as this.. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike
      •  Why would the LBC... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, LordMike

        ...want to be part of a permanent minority, assuming the members of its caucus are predominantly Democratic?  It would serve their agenda to add a couple more Dem-leaning or competitive seats, even if they aren't always occupied by black legislators.

        Maybe I won't end up in Tiberi's district after all...

        The only thing we have to offer is fear itself. Republican Party, 2011.

        by KTinOhio on Thu Oct 20, 2011 at 07:54:37 AM PDT

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        •  Their agendas tend to be much more parochial... (0+ / 0-)

          i.e. making sure that there minority majority neighborhoods get minority representation, even if it means hurting the national or state party as a whole.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Thu Oct 20, 2011 at 10:46:24 AM PDT

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      •  Nina Turner might do the same (0+ / 0-)

        Those machinations about state districts have already royally pissed off some people in those districts. Luckily I am not represented by Sandra or Nina, or for that matter Bill Patmon or John Barnes (although you just reminded me that Barnes wanted to have coffee with me so I need to give him a call).

        Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

        by anastasia p on Thu Oct 20, 2011 at 12:41:25 PM PDT

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    •  3 VRA congressional districts? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      No.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Thu Oct 20, 2011 at 08:16:59 AM PDT

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      •  Not strictly speaking ... (0+ / 0-)

        ... since Cleveland doesn't have the population anymore to support a VRA majority minority seat ...
        ... but two or three seats that black state level Democrats could aspire to representing due to majority-minority primary electorates, p'rhaps.

        Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

        by BruceMcF on Thu Oct 20, 2011 at 11:10:10 AM PDT

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        •  Actually, it does (0+ / 0-)

          Black people haven't gone away; they have just fanned out. And they are moving across the river to the west side. A majority-minority or at least a heavy plurality in Cuyahoga and environs is doable. I am trying to figure out if Hispanics would count in this. they are all pretty much in the 14th ward on Cleveland's west side. I actually don't see any other part of the state where you could aspire to a majority-minority primary voter composition, even more so given that blacks tend to vote in lesser numbers than Democrats. But even looking at the new district 3 in Columbus that the Republicans drew, since only 28 % is minority and it's lopsided with Democrats, I don't see a black majority voting in the primary. And given the number of black candidates eying it, that will make it even a longer shot.

          Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

          by anastasia p on Thu Oct 20, 2011 at 12:45:50 PM PDT

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    •  How does not having a Columbus vote sink work? (0+ / 0-)

      Even splitting Franklin County four ways, you are looking at two swing districts at least in Central Ohio by 2014/2016. Given no Republican vote suppression law until after 2012 and a Presidential year electorate, you could well put one or two current Central Ohio incumbents at risk in 2012.

      Kasich knows all that full well, he was originally a Central Ohio Republican himself, before he become (R-WallSt).

      Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

      by BruceMcF on Thu Oct 20, 2011 at 11:07:55 AM PDT

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    •  a lot of this is completely wrong (0+ / 0-)

      First of all, Forbes is the past — and to hide that fact from himself, he makes a lot of self-serving noise. He is in reality a corporate stooge who might as well be a Republican, why today's younger leaders don't pay much attention to him.

      Second of all, they cannot "split up" Marcia Fudge's district without court cases from here until as far as the eye can see. It is the only possible majority-minority district in the state. Splitting it up would leave none. They CAN — and should — remove the Akron piece they gave her, which comprises only 15 % of the new district, making any challenge from overambitious Akron folks political suicide for them. They would pretty much have to move to Cleveland start building name recognition among 85 % of the district from scratch – and pray there wasn't more than one of them doing this. She absolutely is NOT "ripe" for a challenge from the teensy part of the district that is in Akron. Fudge's putative challenger is a Clevelander who is also too ambitious for her our good — and I understand moves are afoot to try to talk her off the limb.

      I think some members of the black caucus may be thinking of themselves only, which won't help the party or their own personal influence. I think there may be others with a broader view of the situation.

      Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

      by anastasia p on Thu Oct 20, 2011 at 12:39:57 PM PDT

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