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View Diary: House 2012: 12 redistricted GOPers face uphill reelection challenges (110 comments)

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  •  No magic to 50% (1+ / 0-)
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    In addition to the other salient objections that have been made to this highly inconclusive polling, there is nothing whatsoever "magical" about 50% popularity, and that was quite clearly shown in a post on FiveThirtyEight some time ago.

    I really have to question why anyone is excited about this polling or drawing any kind of firm conclusions from it at all. It's at best merely suggestive of potential results - really, several steps removed from any such results. And the most important thing to do with this kind of polling is use it as a tool to recruit excellent Democratic candidates in all of those potentially competitive districts which don't already have such candidates.

    I'll get excited when I see poll results showing the eventual actual or likely Democratic candidates actually posting clear leads over the Republican reelection-seekers.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Thu Oct 27, 2011 at 12:16:15 PM PDT

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