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View Diary: Fukushima: Stage Two (232 comments)

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  •  A relatively modest explosion (or tremor)... (8+ / 0-)

    can bring the spent fuel pools crashing down. Those pools are coming down, the only question is when.

    •  Yes, they'll come down. (8+ / 0-)

      But remember that this area has been well-shaken by quakes averaging one or two a week since March 11, and some of them have been 5-6. I doubt local underground explosions would be worse geologically, but it sure might give new meaning to the old warning, "Fire in the hole!"

      The bedrock beneath the plant could be pulverized enough to become ultimately unstable, and the building(s) collapse along with their pools. Explosions directly under the plant(s) could destroy foundations and the building(s) collapse along with their pools. No matter how you look at it, it's very unlikely all these ruined buildings will remain standing much longer.

      •  I wonder if a nuclear explosion (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Joieau, Russgirl

        could be enough to further trigger the faultline...

        New favorite put-down: S/he's as dumb as a flock of Sarah Palins

        by sleipner on Thu Nov 03, 2011 at 10:58:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  They won't be (5+ / 0-)

          "nuclear explosions" as in supercriticality, any more than the original building-destroying explosions were that kind of nuclear. More like dirty bombs.

          The faults seem to be adjusting themselves regularly since March. I don't think anything from Fukushima would move them more than they're already moving.

          Once it's all collapsed they'll have to go ahead and entomb. Don't know what they'll do about the cliff outlet to the sea.

          •  I read too much fiction. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            The latest one I read had a microscopic black hole plow through the planet, creating magic stones in the process.  So before your reply my mind wondered if it might be  entirely possible that the nuclear reactions that are happening to the Japanese reactors could melt their way down to the center of the earth..... or , something that big. On the realistic hand, though, you are saying that it is something like Chernobyl, only bigger, and at this point, unknowable in the detail and extent.  Costly, and may render an unknown amount of the area radioactive for an unknown length of time, but it's in no way the end of the world.

            Thanks for taking the time to help us limit our worries.

            Democrats - We represent America!

            by phonegery on Thu Nov 03, 2011 at 06:41:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You're welcome. (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Wheever, Creosote, melo, jeanette0605

              We have reason to be concerned, as there is enough cesium-137 just in the spent fuel pools to outdo all atmospheric bomb testing put together, and that fell out over more than a decade. Studies out this week indicate releases so far are many times what has been reported (the French study says 20 times) and up to 46% more than Chernobyl released for some isotopes.

              It's not like we don't have plenty of things to be concerned about. Cancer is an industrial disease for the most part when it's not demonstrably genetic. All sorts of nasty chemicals in our food and water and air are known to cause cancer. We sure as hell don't need more. But we've got it, like it or not.

              Fukushima may continue burping and dumping for years, unless it shoots its wad, collapses and gets righteously entombed. That would take awhile too. Every single antiquated nuclear rustbucket on the planet - including 31 here in the U.S. just like those at Fukushima - need to be shut down immediately. Many others sited before geologists and hydrologists knew anything much about real risk assessment (how things work) need to close up shop as well. And the rest need to be phased out sooner, not later.

              We don't need this shit. The future won't need it either and they won't thank us for leaving it to them.

      •  Is it possible to guess how much of Japan (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        would essentially become uninhabitable?

        And to ask about one small but heartfelt example for the Japanese, how would the ancient shrines at Kyoto be affected?

        •  Follow the plume paths. (1+ / 0-)
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          Which you can see follow contours of the land, and wherever they loft over an updraft (mountain), see the heavy dumps on the lee side.

          It won't be possible to establish accurate boundaries until Fukushima's done dumping. And over that time to map the drainage pathways to establish where it's collecting. Only then will remediation efforts be workable, and those will have to be stringently overseen to make sure the isotopes aren't just spread around again or concentrated elsewhere.

          It may be 10 years or more before they're done dumping. Meanwhile, they know where the hot regions are. No one should be living in them.

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