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View Diary: October jobs report: Just 80,000 jobs added, unemployment dips to 9 percent (36 comments)

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  •  Explaining the UE Rate (7+ / 0-)

    To be considered "unemployed" you have to be actively looking for a job.  The reason why the unemployment rate dipped from 9.1% to 9.0% while only 80,000 jobs is because the size of the labor force has declined.

    The number of people out of work didn't just suddenly disappear into the rapture - rather, they gave up looking for work and are no longer counted for purposes of determining the UE rate.

    That's why the decline is so misleading.  The number is smaller, but it is actually an indication of an economy going deeper into recession - because things have gotten so bad a large number of the unemployed have just given up trying to find work.

    •  Yeah, that's right (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      supercereal, ladybug53

      But I thought U6 included "discouraged workers" who are no longer looking.  That metric dropped substantially, which is what is confusing me.

      Don't tell me what you believe. Tell me what you do and I'll tell you what you believe. --Meteor Blades

      by Dallasdoc on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 06:51:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  U6 does not include workers who ... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jeopardydd, cpresley, Dallasdoc, ladybug53

        ...have been discouraged for more than a year, only those who have looked for a job sometime in the past year but not in the past four weeks. Also, remember that the UE rate is set from the household survey, not the business establishment survey that the 80,000 jobs number derives from.

        The surest way to predict the future is to invent it. — Stephen Post. [Me at Twitter.]

        by Meteor Blades on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 08:05:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  But that's not true (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jeopardydd, Meteor Blades, TexasTom

      The labor force stayed the same.

      The number of people too discouraged from looking for work, but would still like work actually fell this month.  Read the report.

      These are two separate surveys.  They shouldn't be necessarily be linked together each and every month.  Over time, they tend to roughly match up.

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