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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Karl Rove's newest target is Elizabeth Warren (166 comments)

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  •  4th (cont.) (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Setsuna Mudo

    McCain won it with around 57% of the vote (after sketching it out in DRA), maybe slightly higher. Certainly a tough haul for Schaffer, but not completely impossible.

    21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 08:36:27 AM PST

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    •  shaffer's not a conservaDem (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

      so the 4th is gone

      18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 09:15:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  McCain's 57% (1+ / 0-)
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      doesn't even fully explain how red this seat has become.  McCain only got 50% in the old CO-04 and that seat still leaned pretty red at the local level.  That was a seat Bush got 58% in.  Which by a decent amount of extrapolation means the new CO-04 is a seat that Bush probably hit around 65% in.

      This is not a seat that a mainstream Democrat like Brandon Schaffer can win.  This seat would take someone like Walt Minnick (barf) to win, and even then it would have to be in the best of years for us with some kind of implosion on Gardner's behalf.

      With the exception of Greeley and Longmont, the new CO-04 is practically a GOP vote sink.  We lucked out with this map because there's no visually appealing way (read: something a court would like) to get 6 seats a Democrat can reasonably attempt to win in Colorado.  I was initially excited when I heard the headline because I thought the judge had picked the first map Democrats had proposed in the legislature, which made an ultra-GOP vote sink by cracking out the swingy areas of Colorado Springs and sinking the rest in with Douglas County (which would get you something like a McCain 65% seat/Bush 73% seat).  It was a 3 Dem, 3 Swing, 1 ultra-GOP map and it was glorious.

      Sadly the Democrats had to concede two GOP seats in any kind of map a court might like.  This is still a fantastic map for us, I don't expect Coffman to be able to hold his newly made 54% Obama seat, and I think Tipton was weakened by like a percent.  And our three incumbents are still plenty safe.

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