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View Diary: Guess the numbers (438 comments)

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  •  My picks (none)
    Dean 29%
    Kerry 22%
    Gephardt 21%
    Edwards 17%
    Uncommitted/other: 11%

    Turnout 160,000

    Dean has good hard numbers and does excellent GOTV
    Kerry benifits from record turnout and better than expected organization
    Gephardt is hurt by large turnout but organization keeps him close to Kerry
    Edwards' is helped by turnout but weak organization costs him
    Uncommitted and other is being lowballed by most people. In precincts where a canidate doesn't break 15% most supporters go uncommitted rather than to someone else.

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