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View Diary: Which swing state is the 'swingiest?' (99 comments)

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  •  Good suggestion (5+ / 0-)

    I just looked back at the numbers and tried a naive-extrapolation way of adding some weighting (by dividing the 1988 number by 6, the 1992 number by 5, the 1996 number by 4, the 2000 number by 3, the 2004 number by 2, and the 2008 number by 1), though maybe you have something fancier in mind.

    Amusingly, Ohio is still the swingiest state that way, although Iowa moves into second place, thanks to 1988's importance being diminished.

    Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

    by David Jarman on Tue Nov 22, 2011 at 02:29:06 PM PST

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    •  Ohio is very interesting (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      plf515, MichaelNY, TofG, Inoljt, Larsstephens

      The chart suggests a Democratic trend from 1992 thru 2004. Not so much in 2008 though but maybe that has more to do with Obama's specific strengths and weaknesses. I wonder though if it is evidence for why he seems to be polling better there this year than in Pennsylvania.

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Tue Nov 22, 2011 at 02:35:26 PM PST

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      •  I've usually chalked up (5+ / 0-)

        Obama's problems in Pennsylvania, relative to the other swing states (as seen in today's PPP poll), and maybe even more so New Hampshire, to their being whiter than the other swing states... and since he's fallen disproportionately among white voters, he'd be harder hit there. But Ohio, it turns out, is actually a few percentage points whiter than Pennsylvania, so that's not by itself much of an explanation. I think age may be a more decisive variable, since Obama's declines have also been faster among older voters, and Pennsylvania is, I think, the second oldest state (after retirement magnet Florida, another state where he's at risk... although while Pennsylvania just seems to keep getting older, in Florida you have Latino in-migration and natural increase quickly driving the average age down).

        Plus, there's probably some truth to Tom Jensen's speculation that in Ohio, the furor over SB5/collective bargaining has gotten some older, whiter union guys to rethink. There's nothing like that to bend the trajectory in Pennsylvania.

        Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

        by David Jarman on Tue Nov 22, 2011 at 02:51:19 PM PST

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        •  SB5 could well be it (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Larsstephens

          But if anything I think the data suggests a Republican trend over time in PA. Not massive but it looks to be there.

          "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

          by conspiracy on Tue Nov 22, 2011 at 02:59:16 PM PST

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        •  "Tip O'Neill" (0+ / 0-)

          (all politics is local)

           In 2004 the GOP had Tom Noe's ill gotten bundles of cash to spend off the books, however they wanted, free of any effort at fund raising, AND they had "The Hate Amendment" (anti-gay marriage) which demonstrated how effective Ohio's petition initiatives can be and how they drive turnout among targeted groups.

          Take away the ease with which the Hate Amendment made the ballot and Noe's money and that's PRESIDENT Kerry to you, sir.

          In 2010, Ted Strickland nixed a plan by labor groups to put a mandatory sick days initiative on the ballot because he said he wanted to be "friendly.. to business". HAH! It WOULD have helped business (even if they were too dumb to realize it at first.) And I STILL say that it might have helped him to survive the Red scourge. Don't believe me? You should have SEEN the poll numbers! WOW! 70+ % approval! (UH, what does that remind me of... hmmn something RECENT.) Kerry lost (at that time) twenty electoral college votes over 118,775  right to life voters who turned out for the hate amendment in 2004, and put the Shurd (shrub turd) back into the white house. Said voters stayed home in 2008, came back TO A SMALL EXTENT in 20010 (mostly our folks stayed home actually) AND WE LOST EVERYTHING.

          Hmmmn, I'd say, that's pretty "swingy." It's a fifty/fifty state (despite our weird registration rules) where ONE ISSUE framed the right way (or the WRONG WAY, like Issue three) blows up everything,

          "Right to work?" God must be a Democrat.Just think, all of the relationships, coordination, infrastructure, TRUST and motivation that went into Issue two- now MAGNIFIED against "right to work." It's SB5 for EVERYBODY. Evidence? Look at the ease at which we whipped out the signatures for Issue Two, then against voter suppression and now gerrymandering. Think of the thousands of cell phones ALREADY LOADED with the right phone numbers.

          How do ya get to Carnegie Hall? Practice,practice, practice. We got dis.

          One could argue, in fact, that sb5/issue two was wasted on a completely off-off year election. Ah, but fear not! The reactionary morons are VERY slow learners. Completely misinterpreting the results from issue 3, (and results from some deep red states) the blockheads are pushing, against Katsich's admonishments, to put "Right to Work" in Ohio. Oh, no, not here in the land of purple social con/econ prog. Kitchen table socialists.

          Here's all I'm gonna say:


          Those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it,

          I was chatting with a salt of the earth friend who works heavy construction, who, until recently was basically apolitical. He already knew about right to work and he said:

          "DON'T BRING THAT WEAK SHIT UP IN HERE! Now we KNOW better!"

          I have said to prog activists wannabes, if ya wanna REALLY get in on the action, buy some WARM plaid flannel and move to Ohio.We might have a "weak bench" in some areas, but brothers and sisters, we got staffers whose claws still drip blood and they LIKE IT and TONS of issues to work on.

          "And git yer popcorn out...


        •  SB5 (1+ / 0-)
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          It will be very interesting to see if formerly Republican-voting firefighters and police who this year bellowed that they, due to SB5, will never vote Republican again will actually follow through--particularly on the national level.

          I hope so, but never underestimate the power of pure self-interest, however that is perceived.

        •  And our Governor in PA is moving slower than (0+ / 0-)

          Kasich with the massive cuts. He does it quieter and under the radar and he slower and sneakier. He sure pushed the Voter ID law and the education cuts for public schools and state universities were massive.  

          But he is not touching the public unions..yet.  But he will eventually.

          OUr Governor hides out where Kasich is out there spouting teabag rhetoric and Walker..both with their grandstanding.

          Corbett seems to hide out and when he does show up on camera, he cannot string a coherent sentence together.

          Corbett is mean and snippy and does not do well in front of the camera. But voters seemed to like him as AG because he did get several legislators indicted for crimes.

          •  Going after the unions (1+ / 0-)
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            will occur in Corbett's second term.  And, as history has shown, PA Goverenors always get a second term.

            At the local level, PA is becoming much more red in terms of the state legislature and local municipal governments.  The age, whiteness factor, and continuing decline of PA industry, are undoubtedly the reason.

    •  I think it's more common (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      highacidity, Larsstephens

      to multiply, but the effect is the same.

      There's been some work done on best weights to use, but I doubt it would matter much.

      Do you have this as a .csv or .txt file or something?  (I am working on making one) then I could make graphs and stuff, and do other analysis.

      Founder Math and Statistics Geeks . Statistics for progressives

      by plf515 on Tue Nov 22, 2011 at 02:40:27 PM PST

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