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View Diary: Which swing state is the 'swingiest?' (99 comments)

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  •  Rather than the swing (3+ / 0-)
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    MichaelNY, Odysseus, Larsstephens

    I think the best thing about it is the way it clearly highlights how different states are trending. It might be interesting to plot the movement on a graph.

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Tue Nov 22, 2011 at 02:31:09 PM PST

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    •  Missouri and Florida (4+ / 0-)
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      MichaelNY, Odysseus, Inoljt, Larsstephens

      definitely seem to be "goin' south."  I wouldn't waste a dime in Missouri.  And Florida is just hard to comprehend.  There's obviously more to the demographics than I am fully versed in, but it seems like it should be trending differently than it is.

      Ohio is winnable, and only state districting can explain why Michigan trends towards Democrats in the presidential election the way it does, yet elects Republicans at the state level.  Interesting contrast to West Virginia, which votes GOP for president but sends Democrats to the State Capitol.

      "In a nation ruled by swine, all pigs are upwardly mobile." Hunter S. Thompson

      by Keith930 on Tue Nov 22, 2011 at 02:47:34 PM PST

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      •  Florida has gone into reverse (3+ / 0-)
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        MichaelNY, SoCalGal23, Larsstephens

        Progressively more Democratic in each each election between 1988 and 2000 and then more Republican since.

        "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

        by conspiracy on Tue Nov 22, 2011 at 02:56:20 PM PST

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      •  Well (1+ / 0-)
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        I still think  we should give a little to MO as McCaskill will need all the help she can get to hold on to her senate seat.

        West Virginia is an interesting state almost similar to Kentucky with some Democratic Ancestral roots that make democrats popular from the local level. Even both democratic senators were popular governors in the state

      •  Each county in Florida is like (1+ / 0-)
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        another state.  Demographics vary so much that it is hard to comprehend.  Talk about a whole other country.
        Forget Texas... Florida is like a whole other country ...
        You may have serious progressives in one county and
        moderates in another and die hard republicans in another and then wild with Teapartiers.  Key is GoTV.

        We the People have to make a difference and the Change.....Just do it ! Be part of helping us build a veteran community online. United Veterans of America

        by Vetwife on Sun Nov 27, 2011 at 07:23:49 PM PST

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      •  Florida biggest issue is that (2+ / 0-)
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        wishingwell, SadieSue

        the Republican vote is spread more evenly through out the state while the Democratic vote is very compact. This allows for very easy gerrymandering, this gives the GOP a huge advantage, more than the numbers in the state would indicate. Having lots of elected incumbent officials raising money, hiring staff, and building voting list helps build a state party.

        But even though he seems to want to live to 100 Catro's death, and more importantly the change in Cuban immigration status (when Cubans will have to immigrate like everyone else) will eventually catch up to them. Cuban Americans can afford to pay less attention to the GOP's anti-immigration turn because of the dry land law (get on to dry land and you get to stay). When that changes expect the GOP share to go from 66-80% to more like 55%-66%% enough to start tipping the state blue. There is a lot of social inertia to how groups vote so I don't think Dems will win the majority of them overnight, but when they are faced with the same immigration issues as Dominicans...

        If Cuban Americans start getting down to this level of support the Republican party can't gerrymander Miami as easily this will break them in the state.

        -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

        by dopper0189 on Sun Nov 27, 2011 at 07:26:44 PM PST

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    •  I can do that (2+ / 0-)
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      MichaelNY, Larsstephens

      Time on x-axis, vote on y-axis, a line for each state.  Might have to make it two panels - 51 lines is a lot.

      Founder Math and Statistics Geeks . Statistics for progressives

      by plf515 on Tue Nov 22, 2011 at 03:06:39 PM PST

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