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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Scott Walker's weird new ad (101 comments)

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  •  Out of the billowing smoke... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    I found this McClatch/Marist poll quite interesting because for the first time, it shows Gingrich doing better against Obama than Romney - and only 2 points behind. Granted Gingrich does have his baggage, but I am wondering if people are overestimating the type of drag a candidate's personal problems will cause during a bad economy election. Certainly Bill Clinton had more personal baggage than George HW Bush.

    I am Zornorph; the one who comes by night to the neighbor's yard.

    by Zornorph on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 07:28:57 AM PST

    •  Gingrich has successfully (4+ / 0-)

      rehabilitated his image.  It wasn't so many months ago that he was not just unpopular nationally, he was quite unpopular even among Republicans.  I think he even exceeded Ron Paul's negative ratings among GOP voters.

      Some time out of the spotlight seems to have fixed his problems with Republicans, and his overall numbers have improved as a result.

      It is quite possible people overestimate the effects of a candidate's personal issues.  The thing is, every candidate basically has personal (non-political) things that can be used against them.  It's just a question of whether the electorate buys into it as a serious issue or not.  Obama had his association with Reverend Wright.  It seemed to fade away by the time of the election.  Bill Clinton had Gennifer Flowers accuse him of carrying on an affair with her during the campaign.  Ultimately did not derail his campaign.  And so, Gingrich's problems may not get a lot of play either.

      However, I think it is clear that the harassment accusations against Cain are taking a toll on his numbers.  They might recover by the start of the primaries, but I just don't think he has time to put them to rest.

      •  With Cain (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, bumiputera, jncca, MichaelNY

        With Cain, it wasn't just the sex charges, it was how badly he handled them that really popped his balloon. Clearly, he is not up to the job and I think voters are just trying to let him down easy. All he ever wanted to do was raise his profile, anyway.

        I am Zornorph; the one who comes by night to the neighbor's yard.

        by Zornorph on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 10:07:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Question: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zornorph, MichaelNY

      How long have you supported Gingrich in the primary?

      'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

      by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 08:52:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Since (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, MichaelNY

        Since T-Paw dropped out. It was him or Romney and I like Gingrich better though Romney is probably more electable.

        I am Zornorph; the one who comes by night to the neighbor's yard.

        by Zornorph on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 10:05:40 AM PST

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        •  My conservative uncle (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zornorph, MichaelNY

          has mentioned liking Gingrich in a couple phone conversations I've had with him after debates. He's not committed to him, but he seems pleasantly surprised. Perhaps that has something to do with Gingrich's debating skills and/or the quality of the competition.

          What's funny is, after Gingrich's Ryan gaffe a few months ago, my uncle said something like: "He's done - I'll never vote for him!"

          •  That gaffe (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, MichaelNY

            I wasn't sold on the Ryan plan in the first place, though I didn't think Gingrich did a good job of articulating what he didn't like about it. I was more put off by how badly he seemed to run his campaign. Since then, however, he's proved that he understood his strengths better that the conventional people he hired to run it. They bolted to Perry and now look as how he is doing in the polls compared to Gingrich.
            Gingrich has a long way to go before he wins the prize, but I always liked his ideas (if not some of his style) and I've been quite impressed recently. We will see if he has learned from his mistakes in the past.

            I am Zornorph; the one who comes by night to the neighbor's yard.

            by Zornorph on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 11:29:40 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Outlier, not valid (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, NMLib

      When Cain was surging, there was a poll showing him, too, within a couple points of Obama and doing better than Romney.  Indeed I think it was CNN, not some fly-by-night outfit.

      These outliers are not valid at all.

      Gingrich is my dream GOP nominee because Obama will win by double digits even with 9% unemployment.  Newt is an unmitigated disaster, all the reasons his favorables were so badly underwater months ago will resurface and matter all over again.  He cannot survive scrutiny.

      Of course, it's because he cannot survive scrutiny that he's highly likely to have his balloon, too, pop well before he can be taken seriously as a prospective nominee.

      He's already under the gun now for lobbying (yes, that's what he did) for Freddie Mac, and of course lying through his teeth about it in a recent debate and then afterward.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 08:57:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good points (0+ / 0-)

        But double digits? I can't imagine! Who's the last president to win by double digits? Reagan in 1984? And Gingrich is a decent debater and a smart guy, so I think he'd convince at least 45+% of voters to vote for him.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 12:15:31 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  He's not a smart guy OR a good debater (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          A guy who says thinks like Obama is shaped by a Kenyan anti-colonial mentality and has a secular socialist agenda is not smart.  The notion that Newt is a great intellectual is a fiction, and frankly I don't think most Americans buy it that he's somehow smarter than others.  Newt creates the illusion of having intellect because he has some superior verbal/visual communication skills:  no "ah" or "um" to fill pauses in thoughts when he speaks, no distracting body language, no nervous ticks, and he has clear and forceful diction.  Those are all great things in and of themselves, but they are not part of intellect.

          The debates, too, are a fiction in regarding Newt's strength.  He's up there now against a bunch of complete clowns, Romney the only serious one.  And Newt and Romney rarely engage--and both made each other look bad in the recent debate where they finally did engage.  Newt won't look nearly as good against Obama.  And there are only 3 Presidential debates, it's likely the election's outcome is a foregone conclusion before the first one starts.

          The reason Presidential elections haven't been big blowouts in recent cycles is that both major parties always have offered credible potential Presidents.  If one party fails to do that, then swing voters all will break one way.  That's what will happen with Newt.  Voters haven't had their patience tested by either party's choice of nominee in a very long time; they'll run out of patience quickly with Newt.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 10:17:03 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

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