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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Kentucky Democrats unveil two redistricting proposals (96 comments)

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  •  Regarding the Walker poll (6+ / 0-)

    I'm not as skeptical about the St. Norbert's poll. The recent special GOP jobs sessions made Walker and his fellow Republicans look really bad, because it had very little to do with jobs and everything to do with pushing right-wing social issues. Pushing abstinence only, more gun worship, trying to change the recall rules, more Voter ID nonsense, gutting consumer protections--every day was another eyeroller, and people noticed.

    On the economic side, Wisconsin's unemployment rate has gone up since he was elected. It was just announced that tens of thousands of children are going to lose health care and parents are hearing about the real consequences of education "reform". Working class people who voted for Walker are turning on him. A month ago I was feeling pessimistic about the recall, but now I like our chances.

    •  Also looking like they were trying to rig the game (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      scribeboy, MichaelNY

      With Lazich trying to bring forward the Senate redistricting and the make-recallers-find-huge-numbers-of-notaries-at-next-to-zero-notice which all came out at the start of the fielding period for the St Norbert/WPR poll.

      For this and the reasons you mention I can well imagine a drop in Walker support among Republicans.  24% though is a lot, but given that they'll have been interviewing ~200 Republicans in their sample this does rather suggest that the fraction of Republicans for recall is rather higher than the 7% or so we've seen to date (sqrt(200 x .07 x .93) ~ 3.6, so to get 48 in your sample when the underlying population would suggest the sampled number is more than 9 standard deviations away from the expected 14.  An underlying 7% just seems so incompatible with this poll.  15% maybe, but 7% just no.  And 15% is plenty enough to sink Walker.

      However, I haven't seen any crosstabs so can't know for sure what they were up to.

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