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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation Poll: Democrats retake lead on generic ballot (133 comments)

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  •  I don't agree (0+ / 0-)

    I think that if the economy improves quite a lot, it is very possible for the Democrats to retake the House and actually gain seats in the Senate.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Tue Nov 22, 2011 at 01:35:32 PM PST

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    •  Absorb this chart. (0+ / 0-)

      http://www.hamiltonproject.org/...

      Understand that even the job-recovery-by-2024 scenario in that chart requires very optimistic assumptions about job growth. That's not a typo; 2024.

      "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

      by HeyMikey on Tue Nov 22, 2011 at 01:41:28 PM PST

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      •  The chart requires explanation (0+ / 0-)

        Where are they getting their current unemployment figures from? They're greater than the official figures but a lot less than unofficially estimated figures.

        And I'm not suggesting, anyway, that the economy would be fully recovered by November, 2012. There's a difference between improving a lot and fully recovering.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Tue Nov 22, 2011 at 01:55:33 PM PST

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        •  Explanation. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          1. The chart shows numbers of jobs, not unemployment rate. In other words, that bottom of -12 is about 12 million jobs, not an unemployment rate of 12%.

          2. The chart shows the size of the "job gap," not just number of jobs lost or gained. The "job gap" takes into account that the work force--that is, the people working or looking for work--grows by about 125,000 people per month, simply due to population growth. So in month X, if the economy creates 100,000 jobs, the job gap is actually 25,000 bigger. We need 125,000 jobs a month just to stay even; less than that and we're deeper in the hole.

          Example: assume that by 2013 we recover all the jobs lost since 2007. From 2007 to 2013 is 6 years. 6 years is 72 months. 72 x 125,000 = 9 million. So if we recover all the jobs lost in the recession by 2013, we'll have 9 million MORE unemployed people than in 2007.

          You see various figures for workforce growth, ranging from about 100,000 to about 150,000 a month. The 125,000 figure used by the Hamilton Project agrees with Robert Reich's figure: http://robertreich.org/...

          "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

          by HeyMikey on Tue Nov 22, 2011 at 02:38:03 PM PST

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          •  Thanks for explaining. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HeyMikey

            I always thought what we urgently needed was a new CCC and WPA, but we were never gonna get that.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Tue Nov 22, 2011 at 02:43:50 PM PST

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