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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation Poll: Democrats retake lead on generic ballot (133 comments)

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  •  Hmm, wouldn't doing that make it conform (0+ / 0-)

    more "accurately" to the full population, though? Not doing it seems to me an assumption of random voting habits between members of the two parties, no? I am so not a professional, so please excuse the presumption!

    •  Much ink has been spilled on weighting by party (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      The academic consensus, as I understand it, is that you shouldn't do it. Essentially, you'd be weighting for an opinion. You might as well determine in advance what your toplines will bill.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Tue Nov 22, 2011 at 04:46:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  People can and do change their party preference (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      Happens all the time. Unlike race, age, and gender (which pretty much are going to be the same for every person every time you call them), someone's views can change about which party they regard themselves as belonging to. Trying to force your preconceptions on to that criteria is usually a mistake. If you think that 40% of the electorate should be Democrats, but your polls keep coming back with 45% Dem, then weighting Dems downward would blind you to a pro-Dem shift in the electorate.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Tue Nov 22, 2011 at 08:56:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I get that, but we wouldn't be (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        doing this blindly; we'd be following census-like polls measuring how many Ds and Rs (and others) there are. If there is a shift in numbers of Ds, for example, that would be shown in those polls that wouldn't have any questions attached.
        To completely make me seem like I don't know what I'm doing, I'm going to throw an anecdote at you: when I get called or polled by someone asking political questions, I will sometimes give answers that do not exactly conform to what I think is real. For example, very rarely am I confronted with the possibility that I could be less-than-enthusiastically Democratic because I think the Dems are too far to the right.So I answer in the way I think the pollster will understand. Do I favor the healthcare law? Damn right I do! (When actually, I think it was a horrible misstep and we should have gone for single-payer.) But I am still a registered D and would show no hesitation in saying so.
        Am I making any sense at all?
        I am not challenging the methodology in the least, and I trust your results. I just started wondering, if we have such a clear % lead on Rs, why do we lose so many elections?

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