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View Diary: A Court Drawn Wisconsin State Senate (35 comments)

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  •  So in the end (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Englishlefty

    17D, 8R, 8 tossups. Given how swingy Wisconsin is on the state level, do you think a court would actually draw a map this "unfair" toward Republicans?

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Sun Nov 27, 2011 at 09:01:00 PM PST

    •  Potentially (4+ / 0-)

      First, they might simply extend the 5th and 8th outward rather than take my approach which would end up with 1 less D and 1 more R.

      Secondly, they might keep Eau Claire whole and keep Menomonee in the 10th so as to make the 23rd a tossup rather than Democratic leaning.

      Beyond that, I think it is likely they will keep the 21st and 22nd largely the way they are as county-based seats.  I also cannot envision a radically different treatment in the Fox Valley either than a Oshkosh/Fond du Lac seat, Manitowoc/Sheboygan seat, Appleton/Neenah/Menasha seat, and a Green Bay Seat.  I also think it would make sense to keep the rest of the Fox Cities together in one district, as they are in the 1st.

      One issue I wonder is how to treat the growth of Dane County. The 16th and 27th simply have to shrink and do so significantly and it seems that either the 14th or the 13th would have to be drawn closer in, thus making it more Democratic.

      But beyond the 23/31 and 5/8, I cannot see anything being changed without a weird map.  It just seems that the Democratic vote in Wisconsin is much better distributed than in other states, which means there can be a map that looks quite decent and it clean (as I think my map is) and yet still provides a Dem advantage.  

      All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently NY-22 (College), WI-05 (Home)

      by glame on Sun Nov 27, 2011 at 09:28:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's extremely unusual, then (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, Englishlefty, ArkDem14

        Because as we all know, Democrats are almost always unfairly "packed by nature," as it were.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Sun Nov 27, 2011 at 10:28:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The certainly is the case in in the MKE metro (4+ / 0-)

          where voting is incredibly polarized between.
          But a large part of it is that we have a lot of rural Democrats as this graphic indicates:
          http://media.journalinteractive.com/...

          I mean SD 17 is perfect of this in that there is a substantial Democratic vote in the rurals.  That is over 90 percent white and yet provided Obama over 60 percent of the vote.  Beyond the rural strength in the Southwest and West, there is also the counties bordering Lake Superior which form almost on Iron Range of Wisconsin of sorts.   Additionally, in the east, cities like Green Bay and Appleton are large enough where they can help to anchor State Senate districts.  Finally, even if you look at Dane county, the Democratic strength extends far beyond the Madison city limits into the suburbs.  
          It is one of the most interesting questions I find of Wisconsin politics is why Waukesha and Dane counties are so different. They are both white, college educated, and affluent, yet have such different voting patterns.  Madison itself can be partially explained by the state government and the university, but one also has to explain Fitchburg, Monona, or Middleton which have significant private industry.  

          So yeah, I would say that the vote in Wisconsin is much better distributed than say if you look at Illinois, Pennsylvania, or Missouri.  
           

          All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently NY-22 (College), WI-05 (Home)

          by glame on Sun Nov 27, 2011 at 10:46:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Sorry to finish my opening thought (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Englishlefty, ArkDem14

            Where voting is incredibly polarized between Milwaukee and its suburbs.  The inner-ring suburbs are more in between, but even they are developing a polarization where the North Shore and Wauwatosa are moving blue and the southern suburbs (West Allis, Greenfield, South Milwaukee, Cudahy) are moving red.

            All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently NY-22 (College), WI-05 (Home)

            by glame on Sun Nov 27, 2011 at 10:49:27 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  The three biggest factors (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Englishlefty, ArkDem14

            that differentiate Dane County from Waukesha County, IMO, are:
            1. Racial Polarization in the Milwaukee area.
            2. The percentage of Germans vs. Scandinavians
            3. More high-tech industry in Dane County.

            And the fact that a huge portion of the people now living in Dane County suburbs spent their formative college years living in Madison probably helps.

    •  The ratings are a bit optimistic (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, Gpack3

      especially in the case of the 9th district, and the 17th district is at least Likely R with its current incumbent. On the other side, many of the blue seats are Likely D rather than Safe D, so at least some of them could flip in a red year (as SD-23 did in 2010). Still, the reason WI is so swingy on the state level is that most areas of the state are purple.

      Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02

      by fearlessfred14 on Mon Nov 28, 2011 at 11:02:56 AM PST

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      •  This map seems basically fair (0+ / 0-)

        It doesn't change a lot from the current map, aside from what's necessary to account for population. The biggest change is in the Green Bay area, but that's defensible from a CoI standpoint.

        And the ratings do seem optimistic. I'd put them more like so:

        Safe D: 3, 4, 6, 7, 15, 16, 26, 27, 32 Total: 9
        Lean D: 17, 22, 24, 25, 30, 31 Total: 6
        Toss Up: 5, 19, 21, 23, 29 Total: 5
        Lean R: 1, 9, 10, 12, 13, 18 Total: 6
        Safe R: 2, 8, 11, 14, 20, 28, 33 Total: 7

        •  I think I was a bit optimistic but nevertheless (0+ / 0-)

          I would put 23 and 5 as Lean D and 1 as a tossup.  

          All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently NY-22 (College), WI-05 (Home)

          by glame on Mon Nov 28, 2011 at 01:47:49 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Maybe (0+ / 0-)

            I could buy 1 as a tossup, but Obama matched his statewide performance in both 5 & 23. That would suggest a PVI of around 0 as a back of the envelope estimate.

            •  Actually that would be D+2, not zero (0+ / 0-)

              as D+2 is Wisconsin's 2004/2008 PVI average. Wisconsin is about as blue as Pennsylvania on the federal level, though with different dynamics internally so there isn't as much of a built-in Republican advantage from urban and minority packing. So it's not an excessive gerrymander to make a competitive map where Democrats are slightly favored, which is what this map is.

              Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02

              by fearlessfred14 on Mon Nov 28, 2011 at 03:39:39 PM PST

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            •  What makes me think 5 is more solid (0+ / 0-)

              Is the 2010 average. If Barrett and Feingold won there last here than I think it is a pretty solid seat that Sullivan would have probably held on to, especially since he ran about 2-3 points above the top of the ticket

              All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently NY-22 (College), WI-05 (Home)

              by glame on Mon Nov 28, 2011 at 03:47:53 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

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