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View Diary: A Court Drawn Wisconsin State Senate (35 comments)

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  •  This map seems basically fair (0+ / 0-)

    It doesn't change a lot from the current map, aside from what's necessary to account for population. The biggest change is in the Green Bay area, but that's defensible from a CoI standpoint.

    And the ratings do seem optimistic. I'd put them more like so:

    Safe D: 3, 4, 6, 7, 15, 16, 26, 27, 32 Total: 9
    Lean D: 17, 22, 24, 25, 30, 31 Total: 6
    Toss Up: 5, 19, 21, 23, 29 Total: 5
    Lean R: 1, 9, 10, 12, 13, 18 Total: 6
    Safe R: 2, 8, 11, 14, 20, 28, 33 Total: 7

    •  I think I was a bit optimistic but nevertheless (0+ / 0-)

      I would put 23 and 5 as Lean D and 1 as a tossup.  

      All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently NY-22 (College), WI-05 (Home)

      by glame on Mon Nov 28, 2011 at 01:47:49 PM PST

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      •  Maybe (0+ / 0-)

        I could buy 1 as a tossup, but Obama matched his statewide performance in both 5 & 23. That would suggest a PVI of around 0 as a back of the envelope estimate.

        •  Actually that would be D+2, not zero (0+ / 0-)

          as D+2 is Wisconsin's 2004/2008 PVI average. Wisconsin is about as blue as Pennsylvania on the federal level, though with different dynamics internally so there isn't as much of a built-in Republican advantage from urban and minority packing. So it's not an excessive gerrymander to make a competitive map where Democrats are slightly favored, which is what this map is.

          Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02

          by fearlessfred14 on Mon Nov 28, 2011 at 03:39:39 PM PST

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        •  What makes me think 5 is more solid (0+ / 0-)

          Is the 2010 average. If Barrett and Feingold won there last here than I think it is a pretty solid seat that Sullivan would have probably held on to, especially since he ran about 2-3 points above the top of the ticket

          All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently NY-22 (College), WI-05 (Home)

          by glame on Mon Nov 28, 2011 at 03:47:53 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

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