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View Diary: Frm. R. Sen John Danforth: The GOP Presidential Field Is "Embarassing." €™ (184 comments)

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    •  Because that worked so well for Cuomo? (2+ / 0-)
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      wishingwell, glitterscale

      Am I right, or am I right? - The Singing Detective

      by Clem Yeobright on Fri Dec 02, 2011 at 01:19:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  i think it's pretty different than 1992 (9+ / 0-)

        obama's going to crush the GOP field next year, is my guess, and jeb's family name is still mud, both in the general electorate and GOP activist circles.

        jeb also needs to wait for a chastened GOP willing to court latinos for his general election appeal to be an asset in a GOP primary. that's the same game huntsman is playing IMO, establishing himself for an "i told you so"  run in 2016, when the big money's willing to tamp down the crazies hard out of concerns of electabilty, and preventing a long dem period of appointing judges at all costs.

        •  You say Obama looks safer now than Bush in 91? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wu ming, elwior

          And even if he were as solid a shoo-in as was GHWB 20 years ago, the Cuomo lesson is ... Let's play the hand out anyway. Isn't it?

          Am I right, or am I right? - The Singing Detective

          by Clem Yeobright on Fri Dec 02, 2011 at 01:32:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  "i think it's pretty different than 1992" (4+ / 0-)

            was what i said. obama is a far stronger campaigner than bush the elder, the demographic and political trends going into next year are in his favor (in contrast to bush), and he's faced by a GOP that is loathed by the populace, at the moment where the populace is poised to punish the GOP for what it did with their 2010 victory.

            jeb's no cuomo, just as obama's no bush the father. 2012 is not going to look at all like 1992, IMO. my guess is either a modest obama win with divided govt, or a democratic swing across the board. the GOP totally blew its timing with the 2010 win and hubristic overreach. at a moment where the electorate is lashing out using one party to punish the other because it hates the economy, coming out in the open and championing austerity is beyond stupid.

            the GOP big money is going to use the senate as their firewall for 2012-2016, they blew their shot at the white house in 2010.

            •  d'oh, 2011, not 2010 n/t (1+ / 0-)
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            •  Thinking too much? (0+ / 0-)

              Cuomo gave up his chance to be President by being too clever by half, drastically mispredicting future developments. Still, he was not alone in believing in late 1991 that GHWB was not beatable by any D.

              If a R wins the Presidency in 2012, Jeb will have lost his chance to be President ever - unless he is that R. Moreover, you are the only person I've heard assert that Obama can't be beat.

              There are at most three assertions in your comment that I agree with and oops I can't remember what the third one is ...

              Am I right, or am I right? - The Singing Detective

              by Clem Yeobright on Fri Dec 02, 2011 at 02:25:53 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  the GOP isn't capable of nominating anyone (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Gator Keyfitz, Matt Z

                capable of beating obama. obama has feet of clay, and would be eminently beatable if the GOP presidential candidate didn't have to a) make it through a GOP primary alive, and b) simultaneously keep the nutjobs excited and voting in the general at the same time as he appeals to enough of the non-nutjob supermajority to break 50.1%.

                for what it's worth, i think huckabee could have beaten obama in 2012, but i don't think he could jump in in a brokered convention and still do it, and from what i can see the big money still is unwilling to back a candidate like huckabee willing to mouth platitudes about helping regular folks out, and deviating a bit from the norquistian austerity even just a little.

                but huckabee's not running, and the people who are can't beat obama. at least that's how i see it. romney's only competitive now because he hasn't been through the primary, even if he beats the eminently routable gingrich, he's going to have half the party furious at hom and the obama campaign will have a crapton of flip flopper ads cued up and ready to go.

                i am not sure at all how the congress or state races will play out, but i'm pretty confident in obama, given who is arrayed against him and the trajectories of the present. not pleased with obama or enthusiastic about his reelection, but pretty confident that he will win in november.

                again, jeb ain't cuomo, he needs another 4 years to rebuild the family reputation after dubya, and the GOP primary electorate to realize the centrality of courting the latino vote in a meaningful way if they want to survive in the 21st century. 2012 is too early for both, 2016 will be doable, if the party coalitions haven't come completely unglued by that point.

                •  You remind me of my brother (0+ / 0-)

                  He spends half his time making detailed predictions about the future and the other half explaining why his earlier predictions (about the present) were right even though they were technically (i.e., factually) wrong...

                  I'm not convinced, but am happy for you you are.

                  Am I right, or am I right? - The Singing Detective

                  by Clem Yeobright on Fri Dec 02, 2011 at 08:30:31 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Huckster (0+ / 0-)

                  Agree on the Huckster.  He could win all the marbles if he got the nomination.  He has that easy charm low information voters eat up.  But he has said he is making too much money with his shows to give them up.  And there are rumors that his family is not very - um - camera friendly and he doesn't want to expose them to what would surely be nasty comments from the blogospere.  People are assholes and - to his credit - he doesn't want to subject them to that.

                  Meet me in Cognito, baby

                  by out grrl on Sun Dec 11, 2011 at 08:02:07 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  ok let me be the SECOND person in your hearing (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Terri, Matt Z

                (reading) to assert that Obama can't be beat by the current field -- or at least that I have a very high level of confidence, given the GOP field and all the factors on both sides.  I think Wu Ming lays out case pretty well in his response; not much to add.  And I won't work any less hard for this election than I would have if I were terrified or despairing -- on the contrary...

          •  Yes, it's a bad idea to take anything for granted. (3+ / 0-)

            "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

            by elwior on Fri Dec 02, 2011 at 02:34:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Jeb will be too old then - (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Clem Yeobright

      its all over for him and several others  who are holding back. Its very unlikely America (if its still together) will elect anyone over 60 for awhile.

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