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View Diary: Court-Drawn Illinois Map (34 comments)

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  •  Why though? (0+ / 0-)

    Ironically I think he actually has a better chance in the 9th. The blue trend in Lake, combined with the fact that the county voted Democratic overall in 2010, and then the increased Hispanic turnout in Waukegan and the northern part of the county are all bad for him. I would actually think he'd want to run against a crusty incumbent who hasn't campaigned in forever in a district which probably has more ticket-splitters.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Thu Dec 08, 2011 at 08:23:16 AM PST

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    •  "Rapid D Trend" (0+ / 0-)

      I want to see more data other than 2004/2008. These are exburbs that I think the GOP can still play in. Places like NW Lake County and Waukegan are stuffed with union voters and hispanics, and SE Lake County has a lot of Jewish liberals, but there is a lot of good GOP territory.

      •  Lake Forest will probably always be good (1+ / 0-)
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        for you guys.

        As for the county as a whole, Nate Silver says it pretty well

        The story of Illinois' political transformation is the story of the bluing of the Chicago suburbs, which now account for slightly more than 50 percent of the state's population. In 1988, Lake County, the wealthy area to Chicago's north that is featured in all those John Hughes movies, went for George Bush by 27.7 points, making it 20 points more Republican than the country as a whole. But every year since, that number has been pared down some. In 1992, Lake County was 13 points more Republican than the rest of the country; in 1996, 8 points more Republican; in 2000, 3 points more Republican, and then finally in 2004, John Kerry outperformed his national margins there, although still lost the country by a hair (Barack Obama won't have the same problem).

        (Well, he was wrong about one thing: I'm pretty sure the Breakfast Club, at least, is based off of New Trier HS in Cook, not Lake.)

        Then in 2010, even when Dems were getting destroyed in the Chicago suburbs, Seals won Lake County by about 6,000 votes while Bean lost it by only about 3,000 votes, meaning the county went blue overall for Congress. Pretty impressive, especially considering that Hispanic turnout was presumably low.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Thu Dec 08, 2011 at 08:51:00 AM PST

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        •  New Trier High School (1+ / 0-)
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          Yep! We still have breakfast club detentions here :).

          My point is not that it isn't blueing, but I don't think it will continue to turn blue forever. It will stop at some point, because suburbs will not be voting like Chicago.

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