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View Diary: Early state polls: Gingrich with wide lead, Romney headed for third in Iowa? (91 comments)

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  •  Will they show up for him on caucus night? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lying eyes, lysias

    How many people feel so strongly about their support for Gingrich that they'll go out in the dead of winter on a work night in places like Des Moines and Iowa City to support him?

    "[R]ather high-minded, if not a bit self-referential"--The Washington Post.

    by Geekesque on Tue Dec 06, 2011 at 07:43:52 AM PST

    •  One could ask the same re: Romney (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lysias, DEMonrat ankle biter, askew

      Which is why Paul cannot be counted out of Iowa.

      His people will show up if there is a full-on blizzard on Jan 3.

      Occupy Wall Street AND K Street!!!!

      by Egalitare on Tue Dec 06, 2011 at 07:52:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Romney has an organization and a lot of people (0+ / 0-)

        did turn out for him last time out.

        Gingrich has neither passion nor organization on his side.   Hard to see that combination closing the deal.

        "[R]ather high-minded, if not a bit self-referential"--The Washington Post.

        by Geekesque on Tue Dec 06, 2011 at 07:55:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The trick... (3+ / 0-)

          with polling Iowa is that intensity of support matters at least as much as identity of support.  I think you understate the devotion to Gingrich--there are people who see him as the "great intellectual of the Conservative Movement," and give him diety-like status.  It's Romney who I think has the most serious intensity problems, since most Romney supporters seem to fall into:

          1.  "He's our best chance to win!"
          2.  "All those other people are crazy and/or unqualified!"

          There's not much passion either in or for Romney's candidacy.

          •  That deity was polling around (0+ / 0-)

            8% up until the Cainwreck.

            Neither one is going to have passion on their side in Iowa.

            Think about it this way:  all Romney has to do is beat a guy with no active campaign infrastructure in Iowa, and the nomination fight is effectively over.

            "[R]ather high-minded, if not a bit self-referential"--The Washington Post.

            by Geekesque on Tue Dec 06, 2011 at 08:04:13 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  The Cain... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Geekesque, Zack from the SFV

              supporters (up till the derailment) were polling at a pretty high level of intensity--the question is whether they transfer that intensity to Newt or are grudging about it.

              •  Which was always odd (0+ / 0-)

                Aside from 9-9-9 and being black, I never saw what the fervor was about.  I guess he did keep it simple and make it easy to vote for him, until of course he gave people dozens of reasons not to vote for him.

              •  I think the Cain implosion had a knock on (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DEMonrat ankle biter

                effect on people who were sitting on the sidelines--the so-called "not Romney" voters.

                Once they saw that Cain wasn't viable (along with Perry and Bachmann and other flavors of the month). they got off the sideline and migrated towards Gingrich.

                The one thing Gingrich does is stroke their ids--he bashes liberals, leftists, poor black people, rich black people, and Barack Obama--he provides that emotional catharsis the same way Trump and Bachmann did.

                "[R]ather high-minded, if not a bit self-referential"--The Washington Post.

                by Geekesque on Tue Dec 06, 2011 at 08:11:38 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  Just imagine (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MRobDC, Geekesque

            Imagine if the GOP caucus was like the Dem's.  For a time Romney was everyone's 2nd choice supposedly, but i have to think that's different today.  If it was Dem style, I'd have to think Bachmann/Cain/and even some Santorum supporters would end up with Gingrich.  

            Under the Dem-style caucus I bet Gingrich could have hit 45%, if not 50%.

            •  Gingrich has no organization in the state (0+ / 0-)

              though.  Biden and Dodd had more campaign presence in Iowa in 2007-2008 than Gingrich does now.

              "[R]ather high-minded, if not a bit self-referential"--The Washington Post.

              by Geekesque on Tue Dec 06, 2011 at 08:46:23 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Which makes it easier for Gingrich (0+ / 0-)

                I think.

                Gingrich would just need to get a smattering of people in each precinct and hold their ground as they go throguh the initial round.  Once Bachman, Santorum, etc are found "unviable" they'd migrate to Gingrich and not Romney.  The only "onion in the ointment" would be this scenario makes a better-than-expected showing by Perry quite likely.

    •  Democrats can vote... (0+ / 0-)

      ...in Iowa as I understand it.

      Actually this would make a good topic for a diary. Someone should research the voting rules for Iowa, N. H., S. C. and Fla.  Democrats might be able to influence the nomination.

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