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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Tim Kaine sounds feisty in first debate with George Allen (195 comments)

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  •  But it won't be Obama against himself (5+ / 0-)

    It will be Obama against, if it's Gingrich, a very seriously flawed candidate.  It won't be Obama against Rasmussen's beloved Generic Republican.

    “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

    by Paleo on Thu Dec 08, 2011 at 05:57:41 AM PST

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    •  Well (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      andgarden

      I'm of the opinion that the result is going to be somewhere between Obama's performance against Republican Jesus and his current polling numbers against whoever ends up being the nominee.

      22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Thu Dec 08, 2011 at 05:59:11 AM PST

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      •  That indicates a really tight race (0+ / 0-)

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Thu Dec 08, 2011 at 06:22:27 AM PST

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        •  It Does (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          andgarden

          I've never said that I think Obama will do very well in 2012.

          22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

          by wwmiv on Thu Dec 08, 2011 at 06:58:18 AM PST

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          •  I Think It's Decisive Either Way..... (0+ / 0-)

            In my opinion the least likely scenario is a 271-267 EC split.  Given that 2012 will be a referendum against the incumbent with a seriously flawed GOP challenger peddling a policy agenda as popular as diarrhea, I think our two most likely scenarios are either a clear majority of voters deciding Obama is better than the alternative or further economic decline precipitating a political environment where Obama can't win against anybody.  Either way, put me on record in predicting the winner will have more than 300 electoral votes.

            I haven't yet bought into the media either-or scenario that Ohio and Virginia will assuredly vote differently, just as Pennsylvania and Colorado will.  I say all four will go the same way.

            •  Then you are predicting an Obama landslide (0+ / 0-)

              Its hard to see Obama losing PA, and I agree it's likely all 4 go the same way, I'm going the next step and saying all go for Obama.

              •  I Don't Know if a 310-Electoral Vote Haul.... (0+ / 0-)

                ....would constitute a landslide.  I prefer the term "decisive" to "landslide", but that's my inclination. It'll probably mean a 4-5 point popular vote win.  

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