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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Tim Kaine sounds feisty in first debate with George Allen (195 comments)

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  •  Without rehashing the unemployment rate (0+ / 0-)

    Its hard to see how the unemployment rate is near 9% heading into next November.  But even if it is, I'm entirely sure it dooms him.

    The rate was 8.6% as of November and 9.0% in October, but several swing states were much better than 9.0% in October and it's hard to see the catalyst for things to get worse.  I don't think they'll get rapidly better, but I keep trying to think of how things get worse without a cataclysmic event.

    •  Collapse in Europe would be the (0+ / 0-)

      "Cataclysmic event" of which you speak. But without it the trend is most encouraging.

      "The economy has generated 100,000 or more jobs five months in a row — the first time that has happened since April 2006."

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Thu Dec 08, 2011 at 08:16:48 AM PST

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      •  I'm not pessimistic on Europe (0+ / 0-)

        I mean at the end of the day, I don't expect the whole world to agree to a recession.  I think we have the certainty we need for now.

        •  You Make It Sounds Like It's a Choice..... (0+ / 0-)

          .....I suspect the only real "choice" here is similar to America's choice in September/October 2008.  Do we pass a controversial bailout in hopes of controlling the damage?  Or do we, pardon the pun, let Rome burn.  That may very well be where Europe is right now, in a situation where controlling their freefall is the best option, but with calamity still inevitable.

          •  It is a choice (0+ / 0-)

            They can at least stabilize the way the US did, and they probably will.  The main difference is how slow they are to act and how there are so many various political leaders who are dumb yet possess the ability to derail things.  

            In the US, when Barney frank and Adam Putnam were fighting on CNBC, we all know we could ignore them because eventually they would vote to save "Rome".  The problem is the perceived belief that somehow this won't occur in Europe, which it will.

            •  I Agree A Deal Will Eventually Be Reached..... (0+ / 0-)

              ....but even if it is, shouldn't we still expect extremely painful economic fallout that will reach our shores?

              I mean, even after we passed TARP, it didn't stop our economy from shrinking by 9% the next quarter.

              •  Honestly I have no idea (0+ / 0-)

                I mean when I think about some of the political conversations on this blog, I get frustrated with some of the scenarios people create.  Sometimes I don't even know why we think them (I mean is there any argument that 15% unemployment gives the GOP the White House?)

                However, when I think about how Europe works out, I really do think just about every scenario imaginable is actually possible, because their words are often so erratic and disconcerting that I just don't know.

                We should expect some fallout sure, but to what degree its beyond impossible to know.  I do wonder though, if Europe falls apart and the dollar rises, would Europe falling apart maybe lessen the impact of the rise in the dollar on the price of oil?  I'd assume Europe gets hurt more than the US, so maybe its a wash on the price of oil.

            •  "Slow to act" (0+ / 0-)

              Exactly. Actually, the president said it best at the G8 when he referred to them having lots of meetings.

              "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

              by conspiracy on Thu Dec 08, 2011 at 09:34:42 AM PST

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