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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Referendum on new Ohio redistricting map looking very dicey (129 comments)

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  •  the annoying thing is they don't... (4+ / 0-)
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    tietack, Setsuna Mudo, bythesea, itskevin

    have any crosstabs to look at.

    But they do hint at the partisan make-up of their poll:

    Swing States Poll finds the number of voters who identify themselves as Democratic or Democratic-leaning in these key states has eroded, down by 4 percentage points, while the ranks of Republicans have climbed by 5 points.

    That's a 9-point swing in these states, and that means their sample likely features more Republicans than Democrats, and that is not something I've seen in other polls, nor does it seem right since a couple of these states are more conservative but "traditionally" Democratic.

    I think most of us would agree that if 2012 have an electorate that feature more Republican voters than Democratic voters, Obama is almost certain to lose.  Even in 2010, Democrats and Republicans turned out in equal numbers.

    •  Since we have no crosstabs, this is just a guess (2+ / 0-)
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      Setsuna Mudo, bythesea

      I'm guessing that it's a function of Gallup's "enthusiasm gap".

      The question is whether a Newt nomination would reduce R enthusiasm in any way.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Tue Dec 13, 2011 at 07:29:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You think they weight their results (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        to account for the "enthusiasm gap"?

      •  I think Newt (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        will increase enthusiasm among republicans, at least in regard to a comparison to Romney.  Romney would certainly decrease enthusiasm with the right's base.

        •  Newt will increase enthusiasm among Democrats (2+ / 0-)
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          bythesea, DCCyclone

          as well.

          “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

          by Paleo on Tue Dec 13, 2011 at 08:23:25 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Do Democrats get as enthusiastic as early on (0+ / 0-)

            I mean isn't the GOP considered to be more engaged, whereas the more youthful and minority voting populations tend to engage later in the cycle.  Or is this a trend I'm making up?

            I guess I'm just not surprised even if the enthusiasm is true (which I doubt).  The idea that urban voters won't turn out again in 2012 has always come off as ridiculous.  Sure some Indies, youth votes, and such might stay home or vote GOP, but not in enormous swaths like some of these polls show.

            •  The young get motivated in great numbers (0+ / 0-)

              when there is an issue(s) that relates to them personally and in particular....war, promise of ending a war, to some extent the green movement or progressive idea, a popular youthful candidate etc.  Obama was all of those in 2008.....he still is now but perhaps to a lesser degree.

              I don't see the same passion as I did in 2008 and I'm around college freshmen, sophomores constantly.  It's not a huge difference but it's there. Will they vote GOP?  No, I highly, highly doubt it.  I just think a lot of them will not vote at all....stay at home.  

          •  Yes, this is a big reason we want Newt (0+ / 0-)

            I haven't seen much discussion of this here, so I'm not sure everyone here has considered how motivating Newt would be for our side.

            Remember what happened to Obama's fundraising after McCain picked Palin?  We didn't learn this until mid-October, but Obama raised a shocking $150 million in September alone!  And that was when Palin was still new on the national scene, her image as a crazy right-wing bombthrowing demagogue wasn't even fully baked yet.

            Newt has that effect much more quickly.  He's still recent enough a political figure that most Democrats remember him, and not fondly to put it mildly.  The idea of a President Newt Gingrich will send shockwaves through the Democratic base and get everyone off their asses.  Volunteer time and money from our side will flow like lava out of an erupting supervolcano.  Only the youngest voters don't remember Newt, but he's bombastic enough to offend them with his current musings alone.

            There will be no enthusiasm gap hurting us if we're running against Newt.  A lot of OFA's work will be a million times easier than if running against Mitt.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 13, 2011 at 09:24:47 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  A rec-listed diary covers this well... (1+ / 0-)
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      USAT/Gallup makes this seem like a sustained demographic shift, when in fact the partisan makeup of their polls shifts dramatically from month to month.

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