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View Diary: PPP Iowa Tracking Poll: Newt Gingrich clings to lead over Ron Paul (231 comments)

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  •  I honestly think... (4+ / 0-)
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    jct, live1, Melanie in IA, Byblis

    weather could play a major (if not determinative) factor here.  In particular, Paul supporters are highly highly committed, and are the likeliest to come out rain, snow, or sleet.  Crappy weather makes a Paul victory far more likely, and wow, that creates a whole different mess, since much as the establishment may not like Gingrich and the base not like Romney, they both aren't big fans of Paul.

    •  The sugar bowl will be on as well... (0+ / 0-)

      Not that anyone in Iowa really cares about Virginia Tech or Michigan (except for the latter to lose).


      by LordMike on Tue Dec 13, 2011 at 01:03:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Actually, we (1+ / 0-)
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        root FOR the Big Ten in bowl season,generally. Plus,Iowa beat Michigan this year so no hard feelings. Go Blue.

        But,I agree with the notion that bad weather could impact this years caucus.
        GOP voters are generally older,more rural folks,like my parents out on the farm in NW Iowa.
        They are involved,but if the weather is bad,my 91 year old dad and 86 yr old mom probably have to stay home.

        They were coy at Thanksgiving,but I think they might just flip to Santorum from Bachmann due to his catholicism/abortion stance. They do not like Romney,nor Paul, nor Newt,nor Perry.
        They will go with one of those two as 1 and 1A.

        This deal is going to be hopelessly split.

    •  Have these young and committed (1+ / 0-)
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      Paul supporters participated in the Iowa GOP caucus before?  Not there's much participation for GOP caucus goers other than listening to a few speeches and voting by secret ballot.  

      Is the weather in Iowa at that time of year ever not crappy?  

    •  Romney has a chance in N.H. because (1+ / 0-)
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      N.H. has ties to Massachusetts with the Patriots, the Sox, and lots of people from Mass. who retire up there.  Romney should do well in N.H.

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