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View Diary: PPP Iowa Tracking Poll: Newt Gingrich clings to lead over Ron Paul (231 comments)

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  •  No better senario for Romney (1+ / 0-)
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    Assuming Romney knows he can't win Iowa, Paul winning is a godsend. Newt's support will crumble and Romney will skate by with his steady 25%-30%.

    There are way too many not Romneys at this point. Newt's only hope is some multiple combo of Bachmann, Santorum, or Perry drops out. Without that the non-Romney candidate can't win. That 28% (in this poll) is much more likely to go to Newt than Romney.

    Paul is pretty much at his peak in this poll. His support isn't going to go higher than this. He's a non factor for anything but a guarantee Romney gets the nod.

    •  And I think that's what happens (0+ / 0-)

      if you see a Paul, Gingrich, Romney finish. Bachmann, Santorum, Perry, coming in 4th or worse either drop out or their support shifts.

      That helps Gingrich in SC.

      Ideal scenario for Romney if he doesnt win IA, is to come in second, and have a not-Gingrich come in first.

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