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View Diary: PA GOP gerrymander data (25 comments)

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  •  Shifting terrain. (2+ / 0-)
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    Tiger in BlueDenver, MichaelNY

    Looked at the PVI of each of these new districts using Kerry and Gore numbers, to see if there's any evidence of an "Obama shift"  

    Here's what the PVI would have been then, and the Obama shift.  

    PA-1: D+28 (R shift 0.4%)
    PA-2: D+40 (R shift 1.1%)
    PA-3: R+3 (R shift 1.7%)
    PA-4: R+11 (D shift 1.3%)
    PA-5: R+7 (D shift 1.1%)
    PA-6: R+3 (D shift 2.4%)
    PA-7: R+3 (D shift 1.3%)
    PA-8: D+1 (R shift 0.4%)
    PA-9: R+8 (R shift 2.6%)
    PA-10: R+12 (D shift 0.5%)
    PA-11: R+7 (D shift 0.4%)
    PA-12: R+3 (R shift 3.0%)
    PA-13: D+11 (D shift 0.4%)
    PA-14: D+19 (R shift 2.0%)
    PA-15: R+3 (D shift 1.6%)
    PA-16: R+10 (D shift 4.1%)
    PA-17: D+5 (R shift 0.8%)
    PA-18: R+3 (R shift 3.5%)

    Assuming the same trends hold up, by the next redistricting in 2022, the PVIs will be

    PA-1: D+26
    PA-2: D+36
    PA-3: R+10
    PA-4: R+5
    PA-5: R+3
    PA-6: D+6
    PA-7: D+2
    PA-8: EVEN
    PA-9: R+18
    PA-10: R+10
    PA-11: R+5
    PA-12: R+15
    PA-13: D+13
    PA-14: D+11
    PA-15: D+3
    PA-16: D+7
    PA-17: D+2
    PA-18: R+17

    The trends have been pretty consistent in PA for the regions since the 1990s, so I have no reason to doubt they'll reverse, even if they may speed up or slow down in places.

    Still, this confirms my gut instincts.  

    1.  We're going to lose PA-12 some time this decade, although I don't think it will be this year.  

    2.  PA-6 and PA-16 should become solid D seats.  

    3.  PA-7 and PA-15 will drift back towards us, while PA-8 stays pretty much the same.  

    4.  PA-4, PA-5, and PA-11 will all be seats not totally safe for Republicans by the end of the decade.  

    •  I don't think you can linearly extrapolate a shift (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      of 4 PVI points over a whole decade. Lancaster County shifted 7 points in terms of PVI from Carter to Obama. The surrounding areas are about the same. Considering that, I'd say it'll be about R+6-7 by the end of the decade.

      •  Perhaps. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'm working on an analysis of how PVI by county has changed in Pennsylvania by county going back at least to 1992.  I do have numbers for the bigger counties already, like

        Lancaster:

        1992: R+21
        1996: R+20
        2000: R+18
        2004: R+15
        2008: R+10

        The trend has been accelerating, but overall, the shift has been a somewhat more moderate 12% (including rounding) over the last 16 years.  This suggests a drift of about 5% further to the left over the next decade, meaning something in the range of R+5.  

        Throw in with this the bits of Chester and Berks that are in the district, and I'd be shocked if you don't end up with a district with a slight D lean by the end of the decade, although perhaps not D+7.  

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