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View Diary: Pennsylvania Redistricting: Presidential numbers by congressional district & Google map (90 comments)

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  •  "Dems who voted for him" (0+ / 0-)

    Where? They didn't in Conshohocken or Plymouth Meeting or Norristown or Lower Merion. Gerlach didn't really get any huge bump over generic R in those Dem sections of his seat.

    •  It doesn't have to be huge (0+ / 0-)

      He's not going to get +5 just because the PVI went up, unless you think he'll outperform generic R by a big margin.

      •  Gerlach (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Tiger in BlueDenver, MichaelNY

        I certainly expect him to perform a handful of points better than he did in his old seat. He won't have a 10 point boost every year, but I expect him to perform better.

        Remember, a +5 boost in PVI means a 10 point margin on paper. I do think Gerlach would have received 60% of the vote against Trivedi if the 2010 election was held under these lines.

        •  In 2010 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          That I don't disagree on, but 2010 was an R+? year that isn't coming along again soon.  

          •  Of course. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I just don't think Gerlach will ever be held to under 53% of the vote in this seat. He received 51.4% in 2003, 51% in 2004, 50.6% in 2006, 52.1% in 2008, and 57% in 2010. I don't see him dropping down below 53% in this seat, even in a 2006 style year in PA. That 5 point PVI boost will be huge for him.

            We shall see.

            •  But I said 55-45 (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Tiger in BlueDenver, MichaelNY

              If your floor is 53%, then you're more pessimistic than me.  I just don't see the road to 60%.  In presidential years its going to be almost impossible, and 2014 I expect a more competitive gubernatorial race.  If you're predicting 2018, well than...ahh we're getting ahead of ourselves :-)

              •  Floor (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Hahah. Not predicting 2018 :p.

                I mean that if there is some super wave year, I see Gerlach being held to 53%. I just think that his floor is 53% and ceiling is 60%. That's all :p. We don't disagree on anything terribly much here.

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