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View Diary: Climate Change vs. Peak Oil (134 comments)

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  •  I don't think it will get pushed out (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jamess, Siri, SolarMom, G2geek, Ellinorianne, Matt Z

    For conventional oil - which is over 85% of the liquid fuels we get today - there's not a lot new technologies can do to stop the decline.  Tom Murphy (link above) goes into more detail on this (as do several others) but the basic issue is that conventional oil flow is governed by geology and no amount of technology or price increases can stop it.  As for "unconventional oil" (tar sands, etc.), the rates are minuscule compared to the decline rate from conventional fields.  (I.e. we'd have to discover a new Canada's worth of tar sands yearly after around 2015 to just keep global production flat.)

    Economist James Hamilton, among others, has tried to quantify the point at which the economy as a whole tips into recession due to high oil prices.  We went beyond that threshold this year, and we're likely headed into a recession.  You're right, though that the government doesn't have much of an incentive to take action since oil prices never stay high for long.

    contraposition.org - thoughts on energy, the environment, and society.

    by barath on Sun Dec 18, 2011 at 10:47:45 AM PST

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