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View Diary: NE-Sen: Democrat Ben Nelson reportedly will announce retirement (306 comments)

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  •  I'd like to see one poll (3+ / 0-)

    which indicates that the races in Michigan, Ohio or New Mexico are "difficult". Not one of these polls that I've seen has the GOP candidate within 5 points of the Democrat - and very few polls have the GOP candidate within 10 points of the likely Dem candidate.

    In Florida, Bill Nelson is opening up a nice wide lead against Connie Mack after seeing a couple of squeaker polls and the most recent polls in Massachusetts have Warren opening 7 points of daylight between herself and Brown.

    Will it be hard? Sure it will. But given how spectacularly the GOP is fracturing (see: their Presidential contest), I'd be surprised to see that most GOP Senate candidate outside deep red States aren't facing strong headwinds.

    •  I'd say (0+ / 0-)

      chances are higher than 50/50 we'll lose the Senate, but we're still most definitely in the running to keep it.

      I agree with you that Michigan, Ohio, and New Mexico will go our way, probably without an extraordinary amount of effort. I can't imagine Ben Nelson losing, even if Obama loses Florida. Nelson will attract votes from quite a few moderate to conservative whites, mostly due to his NASA background.

      McCaskill should outperform Obama by at least a couple points in Missouri, and she should benefit from high turnout in the cities. Like Nelson (though probably not to the same degree), she too should outperform the president outside the cities.

      I personally think Obama will carry Virginia. He'll do it with high turnout, which should get Kaine over the hump.

      Wisconsin - who knows? If it's Tommy Thompson, it will be tight. If it's not, I think it falls our way without too much trouble.

      Montana will probably be a nail-biter all the way.

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