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View Diary: WI Assembly Election, 2012 (18 comments)

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  •  Two Cents (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CentralWIGuy

    These are my race ratings:

    Strong D (32):
    8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 57, 64, 65, 66, 71, 73, 74, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 85, 90, 91, 95

    Lean D (6):
    7, 43, 51, 54, 70, 92

    Tossup (7):
    49, 50, 68, 72, 93, 94, 96

    Lean R (18):
    1, 2, 5, 15, 21, 23, 28, 29, 35, 36, 37, 42, 61, 67, 75, 86, 87, 88

    Strong R (36):
    3, 4, 6, 13, 14, 22, 24, 25, 26, 27, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 38, 39, 40, 41, 52, 53, 55, 56, 58, 59, 60, 62, 63, 69, 82, 83, 84, 89, 97, 98, 99

    Open Seat Watch:
    1. Bies (R)
    3. A. Ott (R)
    13. Cullen (D)
    15. Staskunas (D)
    23. Pasch (D)
    55. Kaufert (R)
    61. Steinbrink (D)
    62. Mason (D)
    85. Seidel (D)
    96. Nerison (R)

    I've always considered these maps to be a bit of a dummymander. I'm not optimistic we're going to take back the Assembly any time soon, but if we have a strong year, like 06 or 08, the Republicans are going to be in a lot of trouble. I wouldn't put winning the majority in '12 out of the range of possibility, but we'd need strong recruitment, favorable retirements on their side, and a tail wind to win under these maps.

    •  Looking back at the partisan data (0+ / 0-)

      It seems that the 1st (56.4 Obama, 45.8 2010 and trending D with Door County), 5th (53.9 O, 42.9 2010), 35th (53.3 O, 41.5 2010), 36th (52.8 O, 41.6 2010), 67th (52.7 O, 41.9 2010), 75th (52.2 O, 44.1 2010-this has been represented by a Dem for a long time and our candidate last year lost narrowly), and 88th (53.8 O, 43.3 2010). Nevertheless, the 2010 numbers indicate just how tough taking these seats will be.

      Additionally, I think the 55th can be competitive once Kaufert retires because Neenah will provide good amount of votes.  However, it was weakened from 58.3 Obama to 52.4 Obama.

      All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently NY-22 (College), WI-05 (Home)

      by glame on Tue Jan 03, 2012 at 10:30:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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