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View Diary: UPDATED: War with Iran? Maybe So (125 comments)

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  •  Yes and no (0+ / 0-)

    The NVA made extensive use of small, shallow tunnels. We can spot those now. And we've got bunker-busting bombs we didn't have for Vietnam.

    Afghanistan has mountains which have to be flown over or around. Operating at sea level is much easier, and the ability to dig really deep is limited by the water table.

    If we can spot their missiles, we can destroy them from the air. With control of the air we might land Marines via Ospery and conduct island by island searches. I wouldn't want to be a platoon or two of Iranian Republican Guards trying to protect a Silkworm against a regiment of US Marines backed up by a carrier air wing.

    In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

    by blue aardvark on Thu Jan 05, 2012 at 07:46:13 AM PST

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    •  bunker busters (0+ / 0-)

      way to expensive to use in a way that would need to to root out small teams.

      second, missile technology is cheap and very effective versus shipping.  

      and third, you forget, Iranians have shown they are not afraid to die in large numbers.  are we?

      Bad is never good until worse happens

      by dark daze on Thu Jan 05, 2012 at 07:50:38 AM PST

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      •  My point is that we need not fight (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        semiot, Pozzo

        large numbers of Iranians. To get at the Silkworms / Sunburns we just need to hit the launchers. These are not man-portable missiles that can be hidden in a golf bag.

        Here's a picture of the SS-N-22 Moskit Sunburn.

        Thirty feet long and weighs 5 tons. Normally launched from ships, not land. Wikipedia, for what it's worth, does not list Iran as an operator of the Moskit.

        Range is 75 miles which means it has to be on or near the Iranian coast to be effective.

        In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

        by blue aardvark on Thu Jan 05, 2012 at 08:06:58 AM PST

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        •  whole strait is only 30 miles across (0+ / 0-)

          so it doesnt need to be near the coast

          Bad is never good until worse happens

          by dark daze on Thu Jan 05, 2012 at 08:28:08 AM PST

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          •  I would call within 50 miles of the coast "near" (0+ / 0-)

            for purposes of attacks by carrier based aircraft.

            The other point is that the horizon is only 3.1 miles for an observer at sea level. These missiles have to be aimed close enough to the target to enable lock-on by the onboard targeting computer. Which implies a radar with visibility of the strait to enable initial targeting.

            Guess what happens to enemy radar when the US Navy is operating under wartime rules of engagement. A HARM missile can ruin your entire day.

            In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

            by blue aardvark on Thu Jan 05, 2012 at 09:01:18 AM PST

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            •  please (0+ / 0-)

              you know what you call a fleet close to a shoreline?  SUNK.

              Missile tech has far outstripped a ships ability to defend against it.

              Just like battleships, these large fleets are going the way of the dinosaur.

              If you aint a sub or stealth, your just a tin can waiting to be hit.

              Bad is never good until worse happens

              by dark daze on Thu Jan 05, 2012 at 10:24:08 AM PST

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              •  Heh (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Pozzo

                Who said our fleet was near the shoreline?

                Range of missile = 75 miles.

                Range of F-18D = 450 miles.

                So from 300 miles outside maximum missile range we can bomb them with relative impunity.

                In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

                by blue aardvark on Thu Jan 05, 2012 at 10:29:27 AM PST

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                •  range of what missiles? (0+ / 0-)

                  there are all types of missiles with all types of range.

                  And where in the persian gulf are you planning to be 300 miles from a shore line?

                  Bad is never good until worse happens

                  by dark daze on Thu Jan 05, 2012 at 01:44:27 PM PST

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                  •  Well, let's see (0+ / 0-)

                    About 400 miles SSE from Hormuz, in the Arabian Sea.

                    Why the hell would a carrier group have to be in the Persian Gulf for planes to operate in SW Iran?

                    And exactly how will Iran target a carrier battle group in the Arabian Sea? With their vast constellation of real-time IMINT satellites? With their daring SR-71 pilots?

                    Are you suggesting they should just start firing Shahab missiles south and hope they hit a carrier?

                    In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

                    by blue aardvark on Thu Jan 05, 2012 at 01:53:45 PM PST

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                    •  my god (0+ / 0-)

                      are you even following this discussion, if the fleet is to protect the tankers , the fleet has to get its ass in there, and thus become vulnerable as well.

                      God, how many wars have to show that air power has many many limitations til some people get it.

                      Bad is never good until worse happens

                      by dark daze on Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 12:54:41 PM PST

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                      •  You evidently have no idea (0+ / 0-)

                        how to fight a modern war. This isn't a convoy in WWII.

                        In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

                        by blue aardvark on Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 12:58:14 PM PST

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                        •  my god (0+ / 0-)

                          you miss this entire debate, yes, actually the fleet would have to escort the tankers through.

                          Bad is never good until worse happens

                          by dark daze on Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 12:59:49 PM PST

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                          •  Some ship *might* have to be the escort (0+ / 0-)

                            It would not have to be the carrier battle group. More likely a frigate. All you're doing is keeping away small craft. Air cover might suffice.

                            Do you not understand that in the event of open war the entire Iranian air defense system is gone in the first 15 minutes? And after that US jets blast anything in the littoral that looks vaguely threatening? There won't be fishermen out on the water because the area will be a declared war zone.

                            The missiles can't be fired without targeting. Any radar that lights up ceases to exist within minutes.

                            In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

                            by blue aardvark on Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 01:06:49 PM PST

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                          •  you dont get it (0+ / 0-)

                            you really think its a video game , where it takes just a few minutes to destroy everything? please?  how many planes you think we have in the air at the time?  

                            Its not nearly as easy as you think, but then again, what do I know, my family only has two Lt Commanders over there.

                            Its amazing how little people actually understand war.

                            If open war is declared, EVERYONE loses, including US.

                            Bad is never good until worse happens

                            by dark daze on Sat Jan 07, 2012 at 07:48:37 AM PST

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                          •  fyi (0+ / 0-)

                            if Iran has the s-300 the whole air defense game has changed.

                            Its amazing how so many americans think we are the only ones with advanced weapons.  

                            Bad is never good until worse happens

                            by dark daze on Sat Jan 07, 2012 at 08:13:37 AM PST

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      •  Fact is, any military action in the Strait of (4+ / 0-)

        Hormuz would get real ugly, real fast. The Iranians don't want that, other Middle Eastern countries relying on shipping through the Strait don't want that, the EU doesn't want that, Israel probably doesn't want that, and we don't want that.

        But the kinds of passions that drive wars have been know to overwhelm all attempts at logical alternatives.

        Even in this thread you start to pick up on some people getting excited about 'our capabilities' v. 'their capabilities'. Speculation is pointless. Speculation is dangerous. Speculation excites the immature. We should be spending more time discussing what we'll do in the form of protest if war is looking imminent.

        That said, do we even know whether or not Iran already has nukes, as in Russian or Chinese? And that all this has more to do with stopping their ability to produce their own?

        Could it be China has already slipped a few to the Iranians and that's why the Israelis haven't attacked?

        Does anyone here even have a clue what we're really talking about when it comes to war with Iran?

        •  You'd think we would have learned from Iraq, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dark daze

          Afghanistan, and for God's sake Vietnam what superior capabilities get you.  

          What'd the devil give you for your soul, Tommy? He taught me to play this guitar REAL good. Oh son, for that you gave up your everlastin' soul? Well, I wuddn' usin' it.

          by ZedMont on Thu Jan 05, 2012 at 10:00:05 AM PST

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