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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Why is Blue Dog Jim Cooper asking for a redder district? (143 comments)

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  •  I am starting to become optimistic (3+ / 0-)
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    geoneb, DCCyclone, itskevin

    Both for our economy, and for the 2012 elections (which will be a referendum on Obama's economic record, whether we like it or not)

    •  And when you really dig deep (0+ / 0-)

      Its an even rosier picture, especially when you look at unemployment.  Several "swing" states actually set up nicely right now for Obama.  As always, I'll focus on Pennsylvania since I live in Philly.

      In Pennsylvania, the November unemployment rate in November was 8.2% below the national average of 8.7%.  While that doesn't sound great, the unemployment rate in Philly, where Obama did great in 2008, is a whopping 10.5%.  This sounds bad but I actually see a rosy picture.

      With philly such a big part of the state, it means that the state, outside of Philly, is way ahead of the national average on unemployment.  Obama's turnout machine can help get Philadelphians to vote for him, and even if he doesn't hit 2008 numbers because of the economy, he can still do well there.

      Meanwhile, swing Philly suburb counties like Bucks County (6.6% unemployment rate), Montgomery (6.4%), Chester County (5.6%) and even Delaware county (7.6%) are also much better than the national average.

      While i won't suggest people will ignore the national economy just because they might have jobs, I just don't think people in the Philly burbs are suffering as much and going to be so pro-Romney as people and PPP's polls might suggest.  

      Things have only gotten better in the Philly burbs since the 2010 elections, and even Dan Onorato, candidate for Governor for Dems in 2010 (who was awful) won Delaware and MontCo and of course Philadelphia.  It's really hard for me to see a path to victory for the GOP in PA if Democrats win Philadelphia, Montgomery and Delaware counties.  There just aren't the votes in SWPA to offset these larger county vote totals.

      •  One caveat to your point (0+ / 0-)

        Is that a lot of those jobs come from oil and natural gas companies. So  that is not exactly an Obama-strength.

      •  I don't think industries or states matter (0+ / 0-)

        I think national toplines drive all the politics for Obama everywhere.

        It's been much discussed how Obama's job approval isn't any better in states doing better than in states doing worse.  Voters don't care how their states are doing when they evaluate Obama, they're looking at the whole country.

        And individual industries don't matter, there's no magic in that as far as reelection goes.  I think one can make a case that reviving manufacturing is important for the longer-term economy, but for the next 9 months it just doesn't matter where the job growth comes from, as long as the unemployment rate keeps declining.  A decline in total official unemployment is all that matters.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 10:35:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's not true (0+ / 0-)

          Converting our society to waitresses and cashiers is not a positive.  The unemployment rate matters to those with jobs, but so does the amount in the paycheck.

          National toplines don't matter a damn.  Most of the pollsters seem to be trying to force the Obama-Romeny numbers to match the approve-disapprove to show a correlation.  It won't matter, they are just forcing it, and senselessly in some cases.

          Obama's approval is better in PA than the national average, but since pollsters are polling AA's at about 9% versus the 2008 level of 13% it just looks worse.  And by cutting the AA vote percentage in polls, their PA numbers correlate more closely with their desired narrative of PA as a swing state.

          •  You misunderstand what I mean by... (1+ / 0-)
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            ..."national toplines."  I'm not talking about horse race toplines, I'm talking about economic data toplines.  In other words, Iowa and New Hampshire voters care more about the national unemployment rate and not much about their state unemployment rates, when it comes to forming opinions of Obama.

            And in the nature of job growth, again for merely 9 months it doesn't matter.  If people are getting back to work, they feel better, period.  That they don't like the jobs they're getting isn't priced into their political confidence unless they feel stuck over a longer time horizon, which they won't realize until well after the election.

            And beyond all that, I think you're drawing unsupportable conclusions from the industry/trade-specific job numbers.  There is job growth in all areas, do you really know how to properly interpret what the breakdowns mean?  It takes a lot of knowledge and experience to do that, a superficial reading is guaranteed to lead astray.  If manufacturing is your beef, that's been declining in America for 30 years, not particularly any moreso in this recession.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 10:18:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

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