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View Diary: Sea Ice Death Spiral Driving Atlantic Water into Arctic Causing Wild Weather (197 comments)

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  •  Pentagon Commissioned A Study - 2003 (1+ / 0-)
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    So far, based on the diarists comments, it does not appear that there is evidence of the following occuring, but this summary of the report's findings gives a bit broader idea of what could come of this:

    Recent research, however, suggests that there is a possibility that this gradual global warming could lead to a relatively abrupt slowing of the ocean’s thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weather conditions, sharply reduced soil moisture, and more intense winds in certain regions that currently provide a significant fraction of the world’s food production. With inadequate preparation, the result could be a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth’s environment.


    In this report, as an alternative to the scenarios of gradual climatic warming that are so common, we outline an abrupt climate change scenario patterned after the 100- year event that occurred about 8,200 years ago. This abrupt change scenario is characterized by the following conditions:

    · Annual average temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over Asia and North America and 6 degrees Fahrenheit in northern Europe

    · Annual average temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit in key areas throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa.

    · Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centers in Europe and eastern North America.

    · Winter storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impacts of the changes. Western Europe and the North Pacific experience enhanced winds.

    The report explores how such an abrupt climate change scenario could potentially de-stabilize the geo-political environment, leading to skirmishes, battles, and even war due to resource constraints such as:

    1) Food shortages due to decreases in net global agricultural production

    2) Decreased availability and quality of fresh water in key regions due to shifted precipitation patters, causing more frequent floods and droughts

    3) Disrupted access to energy supplies due to extensive sea ice and storminess

    As global and local carrying capacities are reduced, tensions could mount around the world, leading to two fundamental strategies: defensive and offensive. Nations with the resources to do so may build virtual fortresses around their countries, preserving resources for themselves. Less fortunate nations especially those with ancient enmities with their neighbors, may initiate in struggles for access to food, clean water, or energy. Unlikely alliances could be formed as defense priorities shift and the goal is resources for survival rather than religion, ideology, or national ho


    An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United  States National Security
    October 2003
    By Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall  PDF (22pgs)

    A report commissioned by the Department of Defense's Office of Net Assessment (as I understand it, an internal think-tank tasked with long range planning for high impact low probablity events.)

    And that does not factor in any events that might also contribute the the social and economic outcomes that are already a possibility even without the 'conveyor belt' going haywire.

    Someone in a very expensive suit is at the front door and says he wants to foreclose on our democracy. Where should I tell him he can put his robosigning pen?

    by Into The Woods on Fri Jan 20, 2012 at 04:52:53 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

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