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View Diary: 2012 Congressional Race Ratings, Part 1: The House (with map) (72 comments)

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  •  I took screen shots of the google maps (0+ / 0-)

    that jeffmd posted on the DKE sidebar and combined them with gimp layed over google earth map of the US.  From there it was pretty simple just to fill in each district with one of the 7 rating colors.  I'll eventually add the other states as they come and then do a close up section for the NYC area.

    So for IL-13 I agree our candidates were pretty weak, but Obama didn't overperform outstate like he did in the IL suburbs.  Coupled with the fact that it's basically an open seat and it's competitive.  I would really love to see some polling here though once the Dems raise their name rec.

    Kingston seat I'll probably move to safe R, I've just had that one as likely since redistricting.

    MA-06 I'd also like to see polling since Tisei probably has pretty good name rec right now and he just posted a massive fundraising period after I published this.

    Lee Terry's seat will probably move to safe, but I'm expecting Obama to compete in Omaha, and the Dem candidates aren't total some dudes, so for now this one isn't 100% safe.

    And I fully expect McIntyre to win since he's always won reelection, except in 2010, with over 60% of the vote.  They also didn't give him the kind of suburban territory in Wake County that would be turned off by him, so unless 2012 turns out to be another R+7 election wave like 2010 I don't see how he gets below 52% or so.  His new district still has a sizable Democratic registration advantage comprised of "Jessecrats" whom McIntyre regularly wins.

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