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View Diary: 2012 Congressional Race Ratings, Part 1: The House (with map) (72 comments)

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  •  A few points (0+ / 0-)

    IL-13: Tim Johnson is a tough campaigner (known to personally call all off his constituents in previous campaigns) so I'm not counting him out yet. But The Dem lean of the district will play a big factor.  While he may be considered a "moderate" he still is to the right of Mark Kirk. I also don't know if being a member of the Conservative Republican Study committee will help in a D+ district. In the end it all may come down to presidential coattails. I could see this race going either way.

    I think the sutton Renacci race will come down who is the more season campaigner, and how effective Obama runs in the district

    23, male, gay, Atari Democrat. CA-01(former) CA-41(current)

    by lordpet8 on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 07:40:26 PM PST

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    •  Sutton/Renacci (0+ / 0-)

      Considering McCain got 51% in a very bad year for Republicans in that seat, and that Sutton is used to holding a D+5 seat, where is her path to victory? I just don't see her winning. I'm curious to know what you think.

      Also, Johnson really did not get a legitimate opponent. He has three "some dudes" running. Unless Obama gets to like 55% in that seat, I see a combination of Johnson having enough crossover appeal and his opponent being a "some dude" as being his path to victory. Also, Republican polling is supposedly showing good news for Johnson...

      •  rookie (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JGibson

        Renacci has yet to show that he can win in anything other than a red wave year. Sutton may be able to beat him over the head with some of the unpopular votes he's taken, including Medicare. Also, the GOP brand has declined in Ohio since Kasich took over. Not saying Sutton should be favored, but I think a tossup rating is appropriate.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 08:07:34 AM PST

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