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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekly Open Thread: What races are you interested in? (204 comments)

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  •  remember Daniel Boman? (5+ / 0-)

    the Alabama State Rep who was swept into office in 2010 as a Republican and switched to the Dems in 2011?

    he's running for Congress v. Robert Aderholt.

    So, he's gonna make the most of his time in office.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 06:28:09 PM PST

    •  hm (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      missed that Bachus (or whoever wins the AL6) primary will face a Dem, the first time Democrats have contested AL6 since 1998.

      The Dems are William Barnes, who lost to Shelby in 2010 or Penny Bailey, retired USAF Colonel. So i'd imagine Bailey is a better bet but it's a really Republican area, and maybe the primary will cause hurt feelings.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 06:32:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Bachus seat (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I guess it's not surprising it's the most Republican seat in the nation( at R+29 it's tied with Texas's 13th)

        It is hard to believe this seat had Democrat as recent as 1992, Ben Erdreich. (he also happened to be the last Democrat to defeat an incumbent Republican in Alabama and that was all the way back in 1982!

        In 1992, however, Erdreich's district was significantly redrawn as a result of a United States Department of Justice directive to create a majority-black district. The state legislature failed to act, and a federal court entered an order that shifted most of Birmingham's black residents to the 7th District. They were replaced with some of the whiter and wealthier areas of Shelby and Tuscaloosa counties—areas that Erdreich had never represented. Erdreich now found himself in one of the most Republican districts in the nation, with a population that was almost 97 percent white.

        If the Democrats had worked out a compromise map with the Republican governor Hunt,  Erdereich might have held on in 1992 instead of losing to Bachus.

        Good to know we're fielding a candidate even though it's very unlikely to pull off an upset here

        23, male, gay, Atari Democrat. CA-01(former) CA-41(current)

        by lordpet8 on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 07:01:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  R+26? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

      Wow.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 06:42:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, to be fair (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        this seat is one of the (top three at least) fastest trending GOP seats since 2000.  Gore almost won Aderholt's seat, and it's long been a conservadem seat (the Republican ones since 1964 being the 1st, 2nd, and 6th).  But yeah, I'm not holding out any hope.

      •  Yeah, good luck. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jan 14, 2012 at 09:12:03 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It'll be simply fascinating to watch if (0+ / 0-)

          he has the resources to compete. I doubt he would be given a lot of initial thought from the national party, but perhaps the state party could give him a good amount of support. I mean, wasn't GradyDem saying that Alabama Democrats were having trouble fielding candidates? (Assuming he wins the primary, that is. Will anyone run against him?)

          It's almost banal to say, but a lot of the problem is simply not competing. Actually trying won't automatically give us wins, or even necessarily get us close, but we almost have to see improvements if we try. And if we somehow managed to do kind of well let, let alone win, perhaps we'd get a better idea of how to compete in less red areas.

          •  This is like if Atty. Gen. McKenna... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            redrelic17, MichaelNY, Darth Jeff

            Decided to run against Rep. McDermott instead of running for governor in Washington.

            It's like if Chris Dudley ran against Rep. Blumenauer in Oregon.

            It's just too red.

            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jan 14, 2012 at 12:45:46 PM PST

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            •  Let me be clear: I don't expect a victory. (0+ / 0-)

              But being able to compete in a district like this would almost certainly mean we've gotten better at competing in far less red districts, which would mean we are getting closer to being able to hold a dominant majority in congress.

              •  We wont be able to compete in a district like this (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                That would be like losing MD-04.

                Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jan 14, 2012 at 10:11:20 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  We aren't trying. (0+ / 0-)

                  Like I said above, if resources were committed, perhaps things would be different--the key word being if. We didn't run a candidate here in 2010. Our 2008 candidate, Nicolas Sparks, spent less than $23,000. (Apparently, he spent all of his earnings from The Notebook on fried catfish and blow.) Our 2006 candidate, Barbara Bobo, has no report at Open Secrets. And so on.

                  I certainly understand why we didn't compete here in years past and why, short of some bizarre scandal and implosion on the part of Aderholt, we won't compete in 2012. But if Boman were able to finance a vigorous campaign, perhaps things would turn out better than we expect. Unlike a lot of challengers in deep red districts, he does have something of a base in the district (although how much, I am not sure).

                  •  we could make it competitive (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    if a disease suddenly struck the South, killing 60% of the white population.

                    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

                    by James Allen on Sun Jan 15, 2012 at 03:27:08 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Ha! It might still be Lean R at that point. (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

                      Still, think of it like this: you want to compete in a lot of different areas and need to figure out a way, besides running ideologically appropriate candidates, of how to do a better job of doing it. If someone like Boman could get the resources to do so, he'd be running without giving up his day job, and he'd give  us a test case of how to do it. Virtually nobody expects us to win in this district. In fact, nobody expects us to do well. There's really nothing to lose by trying a few different things to see what works.

                •  We lost LA-02... (0+ / 0-)

                  Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

                  by R30A on Sun Jan 15, 2012 at 10:42:51 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Blumenauer's district will only be D+21 or D+22. (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Xenocrypt, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

              So it's worse.

              I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

              by James Allen on Sun Jan 15, 2012 at 02:16:00 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Did he have no hope of winning re-election (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      redrelic17, MichaelNY

      To the legislature?

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 08:43:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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