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View Diary: PPP: President Obama opens up lead over Mitt Romney (190 comments)

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  •  Yes...but (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    frustrated1

    This is a nice little gain by Obama, for sure.  Because, if you look at other polls on Obama versus Romney, they show a much closer contest just a couple of days ago.

    Re: http://www.pollingreport.com/...

    I think now that the frontrunner for the GOP is pretty much known, Obama's numbers will go up in a very good way and I echo the other poster here that said that when Obama starts spending his considerable warchest of cash, we could see some polling just about no one thought would happen.

    - If you don't like gay marriage, blame straight people. They're the ones who keep having gay babies.

    by r2did2 on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 12:42:21 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  But none of them include cell phones (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mdmslle

      at least as far as I know. The Reuters-Ipsos poll released about a week ago did include them and had Obama up by 5.

      •  Oh lord, the cellphone thing. (0+ / 0-)

        I'm sorry but after 2010 I think I'll never give any real significance to  that claim again.  If it was not very much of a factor by 2010 it just isn't going to be going forward.

        •  It was a factor in the last two elections (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, frustrated1

          about 2-3 pts, and the number will only go up. SUSA has pretty much demonstrated the difference when they do samples with and without cell phones.

          •  It is indeed a small factor (0+ / 0-)

            but it doesn't generally tilt elections and I don't think it is valid to add 2 points to every polling result for the Democrat because of that discrepancy.  It will likely will not go up and up because almost everyone has a cell phone now (including many elderly) so with time it is likely the skew will equalize rather than increase.

            •  cell phones do not matter anymore (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bythesea

              I think with time the cell phone will be a non-issue just like the Rasmussen polls.

            •  It's a question of cell-phone only or mostly (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              slothlax, bythesea, cany

              vs people who still rely heavily on land lines. It has been shown that the cell-phone only or mostly segment skews democratic significantly. So just because there are more cellphones doesn't mean this will change; more conservative voters would have to give up their land lines in much bigger numbers.

              •  Understood, but (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                lina

                over the last few years all, and I mean all, of the conservative older voters in my family have switched over to cell phones from land line only.  In a couple of cases they mainly use a cell, but have a land line that is rarely used and has caller id (no polling possible).  This is becoming the norm and means that cell phones vs. land-line will become increasingly less different it terms of statistical significance.  I don't mean to dispute that there is some impact still, but that it is fading and can be ignored except for incredibly close elections.

                •  The last SUSA poll says otherwise (0+ / 0-)

                  they compared cell phone respondents with land line respondents and found a huge difference. The difference will be with us in this election.

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