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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Wisconsin Democrats file one million signatures to launch recall (131 comments)

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  •  And Whether Gas is $4.50 a Gallon or $5..... (0+ / 0-)

    ....Obama's re-election chances in either environment would be pretty low.

    •  Disagree (1+ / 0-)
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      Setsuna Mudo

      As stated these prices are predicted only in large cities and in solidly blue states.  there is no prediction for $5 national prices out there, just ridiculous scenario creation and arbitrary interpretations.

      I can make up scenarios where Obama loses the black vote (i.e. murdering the pope while repealing the 13th amendment of the constitution) but it's not based in reality.

      •  I Think You're Dramatically Underestimating..... (1+ / 0-)
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        ....the pull of the 15% or so of voters whose vote is determined on their basest urges.  That's why Reagan's "are you better off now than you were four years ago?" was so effective.  If it costs Joe Sixpack $100 to fill his truck on the way to the polls on November 4, he is far less likely to reward the incumbent....and there are few better measurements of financial duress for the peasantry than higher gas prices.

        •  I think we're not talking reality (1+ / 0-)
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          $5 gas just isn't reasonable.  Will it be $4.20, yes, but that is a huge difference.  

          And $4.20 will be a temporary national average.  By election day the prices will fall for sure.  $5 just isn't reasonable, its like a 50% increase in gas prices.

          We're showing modest GDP growth with an annual average of $3.30-$3.40.  The highest prices are in already-decided states like AK, CA, HI, NY, IL, MI.

          •  Again, It Doesn't Have to Be $5 Even.... (0+ / 0-)

            ....if it's $4.50 or above, it's still going to be a millstone around Obama's neck of pretty epic proportions.  Now perhaps the Middle East will be contained and Eurozone and Chinese oil demand will be diminished enough to keep the speculators bearish and this won't play out, but I was Team Obama's reelection campaign I'd be counting on gas over $4.50 a gallon.

            •  Well they're not (0+ / 0-)

              $4.50 as a national average also won't be hit.  I'd be shocked if it got over $4.25 honestly, and that would be a peak for a week, not any serious length of time.

              $4.50 would still be a 35%+ increase from today's prices.

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