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View Diary: What if Oregon got a 6th District? Version II (5 comments)

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  •  Interesting, although I'm not sure what your goal (2+ / 0-)
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    James Allen, supercereal

    for the map is. Is it a D gerrymander? If so, well done, within the constraints of keeping a safe Portland district. For a CoI map I'd think it's a bit too ugly.

    The coastal district is interesting, I don't think something like that ever existed. I can't speak much as to whether it is a good CoI, although from a shape point of view alone it doesn't look very compact.

    I've been trying to get a bit of a feel for Oregon.

    What would you think of this solution? It keeps Salem together with Albany and Corwallis, the historical version of the 5th (although it used to also include most of Clackamas, which I took it out of).



    Would that be a 4-1-1?

    •  My goal is basically, (2+ / 0-)
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      twohundertseventy, supercereal

      recognizing that Democrats will probably control the process 10 years from now, trying to create a new district that will solidly lean Democratic without endangering any of the Democratic incumbents.  That means not making the PVI of the 4th or 5th any lower, and not significantly lowering the PVI of the 1st or 3rd, and leaving them in their districts, essentially if not technically (for example, I don't know where Earl Blumenauer lives in Portland, but as long as most of its in his district he should be fine).

      From a COI perspective, having the coast together is a good fit.  Having Polk County, Josephine, and Columbia, or Washington or Yamhill or Benton County with the coast, which I didn't do, would all be good fits (though WashCo would be too big to do in its entirety).  And I think the Ashland area is somewhat similar to rural Josephine County and much of the coast in being populated by old hippies, younger hippie wannabees, and people who are very outdoorsy or into arts.  There're a lot of quirky people in those places.  Now, do those areas fit well with the West side of Portland, or North Portland?  Maybe not, but as Suzanne Bonamici herself said, it's not that one district is supposed to be a single community of interest, it's that we're supposed to try to divide communities of interest as little as possible.  So, I see the Coast, Josephine County, southern Jackson County, Polk County, and Columbia County as a good community of interest, or each of those as separate communities of interest, and the West Side of Portland as another separate community of interest, and the parts of North Portland are the odd men out, but a lot of those areas include port facilities and industrial areas which could fit in well with other parts, and others include hip neighborhoods that could mesh well with people in NW Portland, or also Ashland.

      The 6th district I have is great as a community of interest (I currently live there, and think Yamhill and WashCo are perfect for each other), and the 5th is better (more compact) than the current one, as I basically just cut off the western end, which was odd shaped anyway.  I grew up in Clackamas County, near the line with Marion County, but also spent some time in the Sellwood neighborhood of Portland, and think it and West/Eastmoreland should be in the same district as Milwaukie, even though they're in different counties, because they are very interrelated communities).  I think that district makes a lot of sense.

      My 3rd district is pretty ugly on the eastern end, but I've also lived there, in Happy Valley, and have done much of my political work there in the eastern side of Portland and "East County".  The northeastern parts of Clackamas County are connected along the Mt Hood highway and highways 212 and 224 to Happy Valley & Damascus, and are closely related in their current development trends, and connected to Gresham along the Mt Hood highway as well.  In outer northeast Portland/Gresham you are no longer served by Portland Community College, but Mt Hood Community College.  Everyone in this district can quickly get on a highway that goes to Mt Hood, or they live in the very shadow of it.  That's the unifying idea of the district.

      The 2nd's COI is basically the same as the current one, being Eastern & Southern Oregon, plus now they have some of those tourist towns and quirky communities (Hood River, Ashland, & Bend) who they don't like taken out.

      The 4th is a very good COI when you consider the parts west of the Cascades.  Linn-Benton are very close to each other (served by Linn-Benton Community College, for example), Albany and Corvallis are like twin cities.  It also puts OSU and UO in the same district, and their rural areas are similar too (though rural areas and small towns in Lane County tend to be more Democratic and often more timber-oriented, but they still have some agriculture too).  Incorporating Bend into that COI could be hard to justify, but consider that both I and Sao like the idea.  Not from a partisan perspective, necessarily, but because Eugene, Corvallis, and Bend are all cool towns, Bend and Corvallis in particular had been big boomtowns for the economy, they're all home to good brewing, and lots of white liberals.

      So I've lived in 4/6, and my family has roots in another of the districts, so I've spent my share of time there.  With that, I think these are for the most part pretty good with COI.

      Now as for yours, that looks more like a 3-2-1 map.  You've made the 1st district a vote sink.  I'm intrigued by your 4th, it looks like it could be appealing, though I think I'd rather have more of Lane County in it than Curry County, especially the western end of Lane.  It looks very swingy, though, since the only Democratic parts are the ones in Lane (though the Coos bay area is ancestrally Dem).

      Your 1st district looks a lot like one I would draw for a Republican gerrymander, because it's a Dem vote sink and would probably be in the realm of D+10-13.  However, from a COI perspective, it's perfect.  The west side of the metro area, and that's it.  Your 3rd looks a lot like the district the Republicans proposed for this year, though they had all of Multnomah County together with Milwaukie.  From a COI perspective that's also perfect, but it's also more of a vote sink than necessary.  Milwaukie should be in the same district as a few of those neighborhoods in SE Portland, but no more necessarily than Happy Valley, Damascus and Boring should be in the same district with outer east Portland and Gresham because of their interrelatedness.

      Aside from the Lane County portions, I think your 5th is very good from a COI perspective.  If you want rural area there, I'd say the rest of the district has more in common with more of rural Marion and Clackamas County than rural Lane.  You know, I just looked, and Marion, Polk, Lincoln, Benton, and Linn Counties together are only about 500 people above the size of a 6th district.  It'd probably be like R+0 (all the counties but Marion would cancel each other out), but it could be a good district.  It could be a fair fight district, and pretty good COI.  The district you've drawn is, I'd guess, close to D+0 or D+1.

      Your 2nd district is as fine as the current one.

      Your 6th district... doesn't really make sense from a COI perspective, unless you're trying to throw most of the R-leaning parts of the greater metro area in with most of the swing areas.  Definitely, I think, a Republican leaning district.  Removing Milwaukie from Clackamas makes it tilt more R overall, Marion parts are swing- tilt R, Tillamook and Columbia are swingish, your rural parts of WashCo are lean-R, Yamhill is stubbornly Republican leaning, and only Clatsop really leans Democratic consistently.  Pull out most of Clackamas & Marion Counties and throw in more of WashCo, starting with Sherwood, Hillsboro, and Forest Grove/Cornelius, and it'd make more COI sense, since they are more closely related to Yamhill County and the coast.

      Overall, some parts of your map are really good from a COI perspective, some are a bit questionable, but not abhorrent.  Pretty impressive.  Not the best map for Democrats, though.

      That's probably a lot longer than you expected, but you said you wanted to learn more about Oregon.  If you have any questions about specifics, feel free to ask.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Thu Jan 19, 2012 at 04:14:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks a lot. This is really helpful. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        I'll probably think of some more specific comments later today when I have a bit more time and am home.

        •  Hm... I said a lot of things without explaining. (0+ / 0-)

          When I say certain places or people go together, (the coast, certain rural areas, WashCo & Yamhill County) I'm generally referring to demographics, major industries, & growth patterns, to be clear, and for rural areas, what they grow or if they're more timber-oriented.  Or if communities are just closely linked to each other, like family, like with Albany & Corvallis, or Milwaukie & Sellwood, or Damascus/Happy Valley with East Multnomah County.  These are places where people will travel from one to another for work, shopping, recreation, seeing friends, etc, & they're easily accessible from one another.

          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

          by James Allen on Thu Jan 19, 2012 at 05:23:51 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

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