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View Diary: Four Upcoming States Newt Can Win (22 comments)

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  •  Good analysis, though there's (1+ / 0-)
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    polecat

    one additional factor that could end up being huge in those caucus states: Ron Paul. His troops, armed with superior organization and a thorough understanding of the often-obscure caucus rules, will do everything in their power to hijack the caucuses and steal some delegates to the national convention. Anyone familiar with their antics -- for example, the Republicans in my precinct who were unfortunate enough to attend the Tarrant County (TX) convention in 2008 -- know that the Paulbots are merciless and use every parliamentary trick and rule to their advantage. If they catch the Romney and Gingrich organizations flatfooted in some of those smaller caucus states, they could end up with a non-trivial number of national delegates, at the expense of whoever was otherwise favored to win the state.

    With every goddess a let down, every idol a bring down, it gets you down / but the search for perfection, your own predilection, goes on and on and on. . .

    by cardinal on Mon Jan 23, 2012 at 11:48:58 AM PST

    •  True (1+ / 0-)
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      cardinal

      That would also help prolong Romney's march to the nomination, which would be delightful. But worth noting, it won't affect whether or not Newt beats Romney in these states, since most of the Paulites aren't traditional Republicans who would support either of those two if their guy was gone.

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