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View Diary: Road to the Nomination (28 comments)

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  •  Yes, I think so. (0+ / 0-)

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Tue Jan 24, 2012 at 05:28:02 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Disagree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      It is probably empirically provable that his being Mormon makes a positive difference in Utah, Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado.

      22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Tue Jan 24, 2012 at 05:31:03 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Only Utah and Idaho have a very large LDS pop. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, wu ming

        I think people generally tend to overestimate the LDS population of the Rocky Mountain region (with the exception of Idaho and Utah)

        from http://www.adherents.com/...

        State    Number of
        congregations    Number of
        members    Percent of state
        population
        Utah    2,924    1,236,242    71.76%
        Idaho    662    268,060    26.63
        Wyoming    128    45,793    10.10
        Nevada    198    89,033    7.41
        Arizona    469    199,761    5.45
        Montana    106    28,620    3.58
        Hawaii    109    38,303    3.46
        Oregon    228    89,601    3.15
        Washington    371    150,634    3.10
        Alaska    58    15,751    2.86

        25, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Tue Jan 24, 2012 at 06:31:37 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wu ming

          Ofcourse, but we must remember that the GOP primary electorate is even more LDS than the population at large and that the LDS population is a high turnout group, which bumps their numbers up even higher. In Nevada, for instance, the GOP primary is probably around 16-18% LDS. That is pretty substantial when you consider that they're likely to unanimously choose Romney over Gingrich.

          22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

          by wwmiv on Tue Jan 24, 2012 at 06:39:28 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I think LDS are only more than 15% Rep. primary (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wu ming

          in Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and Nevada (and  in Nevada I would think the 25% it was in 2008 is the absolute maximum it could be since only Romney and Paul were playing in the state - http://www.cnn.com/...).

          In 2008, 11% of the Arizona primary was LDS - http://www.cnn.com/...

          Nonetheless, thanks so much for writing this, this is really great information to have and I really appreciate the time and effort you spend int compiling it. As a side note, you should also consider cross posting at RRH -- I'm sure they'd be interested in seeing it there (and I don't think you even have any partisan language you'd have to scrub).

          25, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Tue Jan 24, 2012 at 06:39:57 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Oops numbers above out of date -- though not off (0+ / 0-)

          by too much. More up-to date numbers at link.

          http://www.allaboutmormons.com/...

          25, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Tue Jan 24, 2012 at 07:18:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

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