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View Diary: Republicans have an opening with Latinos! Except that they don't. (134 comments)

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  •  Polls are interesting.. but, turnout is key.. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IM, hanswall

    African Americans and Hispanics will likely favor Obama over any GOP candidate in nearly the same percentages as they did in 2008.  I don't see how that would have changed much over the last 3 years.

    But turnout..  That is going to be tough this year.  Easier with Gingrich than Romney, but still tough.

    Then, there are the Independents.  That group is going to swing way to the right this year if polls hold true.  (Once again, depending on who the GOP candidate ends up being)

    •  I cant say this for hispanics (5+ / 0-)

      but as a Black American, I can say this with certainty. The AA vote will be out in full force for Obama in Nov. They absolutely adore the man and can do no wrong in their minds. The turnout will be huge for AA.

      I think the turnout for Hispanics will be big as well because of the anti immigration laws. The fact that Romney said he will veto the Dream Act will drive people to polls as well, as long as Obama campaigns hard on real immigration reform.

      Regards to Independents, all that matters is the economy who they will go to. But with an overwhelming AA vote and Hispanic turnout with the demographic changes in swing states will put Obama over the edge.

      •  rec'd for your optimism (0+ / 0-)

        But, I don't share it based on reports I have read about enthusiasm and predicted substantially lower turnout especially with younger voters.

        •  I have never said anything about (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          hanswall, Matt Z

          Young voters are the only voters where I am worried about. Also, it's not really optimism but just what I see and observe. I would like to see your polls of African American enthusiasm because most of them I know and have talked to will be very much so be there in Nov. To be honest, I don't know think I've talked to a black person, young or old, who has said they wont vote for Obama come Nov.They don't want the first AA president to be a one term president.

          I can't speak for Hispanics but as someone who knows his own community, I don't see this enthusiasm gap you speak of.

          •  I mean honestly (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            hanswall, Matt Z

            come election day, as the first African American president, Obama's re-election will be such a big issue in the media, I really don't see how AA would stay home in Nov. I really don't see it.

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