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View Diary: IP: OK, the talks have now apparently gone bust. Now what? (39 comments)

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  •  The Palestinians don't need to take (1+ / 0-)
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    Terra Mystica

    over or launch a war.

    They just need to demand the right to vote.

    "[R]ather high-minded, if not a bit self-referential"--The Washington Post.

    by Geekesque on Mon Jan 30, 2012 at 07:20:58 AM PST

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    •  a one-state solution means the Palestinians take (1+ / 0-)
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      over by default.  Effectively, it would be a group of Jews in a Muslim world.  Now it's a group of Jews in a Muslim world too--but at least there is Jewish self-determination in one tiny area.  Unfortunately, that comes at the expense of Palestinians and that needs to change.  But a 180 degree shift isn't the answer either.

      A one-state solution is, effectively, Muslim-dominated Palestine with some Jews in it.  Who's to say such a 'secular democracy' would stay secular, anyway?

      •  That's what's waiting at the end (1+ / 0-)
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        Terra Mystica

        of the Likud path.

        "You can pay me now, or pay me later."

        "[R]ather high-minded, if not a bit self-referential"--The Washington Post.

        by Geekesque on Mon Jan 30, 2012 at 09:48:57 AM PST

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        •  i don't support the Likud path either. nt (1+ / 0-)
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        •  Perhaps part of the question is 'what is a (1+ / 0-)
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          democracy' at all. Among the peculiarities of the Israeli system is that it creates benefits for one class of citizens which all citizens pay for. Much of the land taken from Palestinians in 1948 is now and has been since about 1950 state land, but it cannot be transferred to people not Jewish, the water rights from it cannot be transferred to those not Jewish, a lot of the housing built cannot be transferred to those not Jewish, etc etc. Palestinian Israelis can elect MKs but those MKS are not permitted to be part of the government. There are pass systems for Palestinian Israelis but not Jewish Israelis. There are now proposals to say that certain benefits also cannot be available to those who have not served in IDF, and perhaps but not certainly those who do alternative national service, something not usually done by Palestinian Israelis if they are even allowed to. There are tax exemptions for religious institutions and buildings, but the only ones granted according to recent reporting were for Jewish religious institutions. This is not a democracy as I know it.  

        •  No Geek, that is not what is waiting (0+ / 0-)

          at the end of the Likud path.

          They have no intention of having that be an issue. They just put out their version of "a map" though there is nothing in pictures but it pretty much outlines Israel's current offer (which has been PM Netanyahu's program from the first), which is:

          1. All Israeli settlements remain and are annexed to Israel
          2. Israel occupies the Jordan River Valley
          3. J'slem is fully Israel
          4. There is no contiguous route to Gaza
          5.  Palestine would be demilitarized
          6. All Major Palestinian Population areas would be fully under Palestinian control.

          IF that doesn't happen - watch for the whole West Bank without Gaza to be settled (which would leave a population split of 58% Jewish, 42% Palestinian IF the population is not "transferred".

          Now, would that destroy Israel? In the long run, yeah probably... but no one knows. The thing is that - THIS is what's waiting at the end of the Likud Path.

          A lot depends on what happens in the rest of the region.

          •  Transfer, that is to say, removal of Palestinians (1+ / 0-)
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            entirely, is apparently still an option for right wing Israelis. While not being done at the wholesale level of the Forties, the papers have on a regular basis reports of Bedouins and Arabs being forced off their land to this day, a few at a time, because the IDF claims the land for military purposes or the state does as to Bedouins in the South, or having their wells shut down and water denied because Israeli bodies refused permits after requiring them, schools and mosques the same, and the like or for no stated reason at all. The reporting a week or so ago was that parts of Area C are now much more Israeli settler than Palestinian at a two to one rate, because of the settlement building, and some of those settlers are still reported simply taking down Palestinian orchards and crops, and seizing land for their own use by force. It also appears, now that I am doing detailed reading about 1948 that the same goals set then, such as control of Shiek Jarrah areas near Jerusalem, are still in the works for current Israeli governments on the same terms.

            And of course, the government of Israel will take no responsibility for the consequences of their actions, as if the Palestinians thus ejected never existed at all, and some other state or states must take sole responsibility.

          •  Point 6 is impossible if 1-5 hold. (0+ / 0-)

            If Palestine can't even govern its own borders, conduct its own foreign affairs, arm itself, control its own airspace, or even grant its citizens the right to move within Palestinian territory, then it's not fully under Palestinian control.

            It would be a landlocked version of Puerto Rico.

            "[R]ather high-minded, if not a bit self-referential"--The Washington Post.

            by Geekesque on Mon Jan 30, 2012 at 11:30:25 AM PST

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      •  federal solutions (0+ / 0-)

        have been floated, with distinct areas and constitutional protects. Sort of a compromise.

        But I agree with you that a one state solution would be a potential nightmare of epic proportions. My problem is I can't see how a two state solution is still possible. I fear we're past the point of no return. And all the Palestinians have to do is sit and wait.

        •  I actually agree with you sue wrt "the point (0+ / 0-)

          of no return" at least for the Palestinian position. They are never going to get their "map", OR RoR. Period. And at this rate, any of Jerusalem as long as they don't recognize Israel as the National State and Homeland of the Jewish people. It's just not going to happen - not with Likud or any nationalist coalition in power. It probably wouldn't happen in a Labor, Kadima, or Lapid Government either - but at least with the Center or Center Left there would be some "wiggle" room.

          Also, as long as the U.S. is backing Israel (and that is into the forseeable future) and as long as the region's changes turn away from Europe then International Pressure is just not going to amount to much in real terms.

          The fact of the matter is that given the State of the Palestinian Polity and the multitude of problems therein, there is absolutely no reason for the Israelis to have any confidence in any arrangements. The reverse could also be said with regard to the Israeli Polity and the Palestinians. But Israel is in the "power" position here and frankly they are the ones who are going to decide how this is going to play out.

          As for the Palestinians doing nothing... that won't work out well for them. The Israelis are dynamically changing the situation. They will take all factors into account as to what they do.

          Please note this is not me advocating anything this is just me calling it as I see it.

          •  The right of return (0+ / 0-)

            and various acknowledgments will happen as part of a comprehensive agreement. I don't believe either of those things are as big of an obstacle as some here believe. They'll be part of the package and will likely tick the boxes the Israelis have asked for with a couple of tweaks specifically designed to annoy them. The Palestinian leadership will hold those items until the very last minute, too, so don't expect them to fold those cards early. That's to be expected. They'd be dumped out of office if they did. The people will accept it if they feel they are getting something for it, no less. Making it part of the final transaction is actually essential to make any agreement stick.

            The Palestinians will accept money in place of the right of return - it's been talked about for years. What Palestinians want in that area is acknowledgement. Which the Israelis will have to give as part of this deal.

            •  sue... R.o.R is a big issue to Israelis (0+ / 0-)

              You might not think so but they do. But anyway...

              The right of return and various acknowledgments will happen as part of a comprehensive agreement.

              What agreement? The talks are breaking if not have broken down completely. There is no agreement in the works. The talks are shut down as the Israelis won't stop building in areas they think will be theirs and the Palestinians won't talk as they think the proposed Likud borders are unacceptable AND the Israelis keep building.

              The Palestinian leadership will hold those items until the very last minute, too, so don't expect them to fold those cards early. That's to be expected. They'd be dumped out of office if they did.

              Oh... I agree the Palestinian leadership would be dumped on their asses if they agreed to this early and I also agree that for any plan to work their has to be popular agreement. Which I don't see but one never knows.

              You say the Palestinians will accept money in place of RoR and the "Palestine Papers" seem to back that up. I think while this might end up being "de facto" correct I don't think the Palestinians will make this a part of a treaty subject to referendum. However, I might be wrong as well, so....

              Bottom line though is that by all indications the Israeli Position is not going to be changing that soon as Likud looks like they are going to win the next Israeli elections, and Binyamin Netanyahu looks like he easily won the Likud Primary just held.

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