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View Diary: IP: OK, the talks have now apparently gone bust. Now what? (39 comments)

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  •  federal solutions (0+ / 0-)

    have been floated, with distinct areas and constitutional protects. Sort of a compromise.

    But I agree with you that a one state solution would be a potential nightmare of epic proportions. My problem is I can't see how a two state solution is still possible. I fear we're past the point of no return. And all the Palestinians have to do is sit and wait.

    •  I actually agree with you sue wrt "the point (0+ / 0-)

      of no return" at least for the Palestinian position. They are never going to get their "map", OR RoR. Period. And at this rate, any of Jerusalem as long as they don't recognize Israel as the National State and Homeland of the Jewish people. It's just not going to happen - not with Likud or any nationalist coalition in power. It probably wouldn't happen in a Labor, Kadima, or Lapid Government either - but at least with the Center or Center Left there would be some "wiggle" room.

      Also, as long as the U.S. is backing Israel (and that is into the forseeable future) and as long as the region's changes turn away from Europe then International Pressure is just not going to amount to much in real terms.

      The fact of the matter is that given the State of the Palestinian Polity and the multitude of problems therein, there is absolutely no reason for the Israelis to have any confidence in any arrangements. The reverse could also be said with regard to the Israeli Polity and the Palestinians. But Israel is in the "power" position here and frankly they are the ones who are going to decide how this is going to play out.

      As for the Palestinians doing nothing... that won't work out well for them. The Israelis are dynamically changing the situation. They will take all factors into account as to what they do.

      Please note this is not me advocating anything this is just me calling it as I see it.

      •  The right of return (0+ / 0-)

        and various acknowledgments will happen as part of a comprehensive agreement. I don't believe either of those things are as big of an obstacle as some here believe. They'll be part of the package and will likely tick the boxes the Israelis have asked for with a couple of tweaks specifically designed to annoy them. The Palestinian leadership will hold those items until the very last minute, too, so don't expect them to fold those cards early. That's to be expected. They'd be dumped out of office if they did. The people will accept it if they feel they are getting something for it, no less. Making it part of the final transaction is actually essential to make any agreement stick.

        The Palestinians will accept money in place of the right of return - it's been talked about for years. What Palestinians want in that area is acknowledgement. Which the Israelis will have to give as part of this deal.

        •  sue... R.o.R is a big issue to Israelis (0+ / 0-)

          You might not think so but they do. But anyway...

          The right of return and various acknowledgments will happen as part of a comprehensive agreement.

          What agreement? The talks are breaking if not have broken down completely. There is no agreement in the works. The talks are shut down as the Israelis won't stop building in areas they think will be theirs and the Palestinians won't talk as they think the proposed Likud borders are unacceptable AND the Israelis keep building.

          The Palestinian leadership will hold those items until the very last minute, too, so don't expect them to fold those cards early. That's to be expected. They'd be dumped out of office if they did.

          Oh... I agree the Palestinian leadership would be dumped on their asses if they agreed to this early and I also agree that for any plan to work their has to be popular agreement. Which I don't see but one never knows.

          You say the Palestinians will accept money in place of RoR and the "Palestine Papers" seem to back that up. I think while this might end up being "de facto" correct I don't think the Palestinians will make this a part of a treaty subject to referendum. However, I might be wrong as well, so....

          Bottom line though is that by all indications the Israeli Position is not going to be changing that soon as Likud looks like they are going to win the next Israeli elections, and Binyamin Netanyahu looks like he easily won the Likud Primary just held.

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