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View Diary: Jeff Masters: the Climate Has Shifted to a New State (280 comments)

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  •  quick summary: (31+ / 0-)

    Every degree Celsius above historic averages, translates to about a billion excess deaths.  

    Right now we're heading for +2 Celsius.  That's about 2 billion deaths, or about 200x the Nazi Holocaust.

    At +4 we're talking "damn near close to the end of civilization as we know it."

    Between +2 and +4 there's the opportunity to save ourselves as a species.  Once things go past +4, we may hit tipping points that push us close to extinction, or into extinction, as a species.  

    This is the single most important crisis the human race has faced in the entirety of written history, and probably in the entirety of oral history as well.

    And this demands nothing less than 100% commitment from all of us, to fight it on all grounds: political, economic, personal, social: everything.  We can win if we try, and there's no excuse for inaction.

    "Minus two votes for the Democrat" equals "plus one vote for the Republican." Arithmetic doesn't care about your feelings.

    by G2geek on Mon Feb 06, 2012 at 12:15:27 PM PST

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    •  The link failed for me (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jayden, pgm 01, ozsea1, Creosote

      I'm not sure about the predictions of impacts. I just don't know.

      look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

      by FishOutofWater on Mon Feb 06, 2012 at 02:18:47 PM PST

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      •  that wasn't a summary of the link, but of the... (6+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ozsea1, DawnN, Creosote, celdd, nzanne, adrianrf

        .... general sense of opinion on the topic, by climate scientists and their allies in their unguarded moments, like after pizza and a couple of beers.  If you hang out at any climate conferences or read stuff by people who do and aren't in some official position that stifles what they say, you'll hear stuff like that.

        And another thing: the Supreme Court's selection of Bush in 2000 was the turning point beyond which we lost the critical interval of time that could have turned this around without some degree of train wreck.  I will never forget the moment I heard it; I was exiting the Bay Bridge into SF at the Fremont Street exit to go to a client's site, and when the news was announced, my first reaction was "that's it, game over, end of the world."  Good God!, somebody please prove me wrong!

        "Minus two votes for the Democrat" equals "plus one vote for the Republican." Arithmetic doesn't care about your feelings.

        by G2geek on Mon Feb 06, 2012 at 07:41:26 PM PST

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    •  Thank you for stating it so baldly. (7+ / 0-)

      We need to be shaken the hell up out of our (collective but not necessarily all inclusive) denial.
      Too many distractions and too many diversions of resources and effort that should be working frantically on heading off a looming disaster of our own design.

      Understanding what is at stake and moving towards solutions is so damnably necessary and so damnably far from the global public consciousness.

      Global food shortages and starvation is around the corner, and the window of opportunity to affect any change in its inevitability is rapidly closing. WTF will it take, I wonder, for TPTB to acknowledge the elephant in the room before it is truly too late to do anything but strike up the orchestra and dance our way off the decks of a global Titanic?
      /rant


      "When the powerless are shut out of the media, we will make the media irrelevant" ~Anonymous~

      by Lisa Lockwood on Mon Feb 06, 2012 at 03:01:01 PM PST

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      •  heh, and that was putting it mildly. (6+ / 0-)

        I can out-doomer just about anyone on this site, and I'd be outing myself to repeat some of the memes I use elsewhere to describe it.  

        But despite all that, the bottom line is, it's better to try and fail than to fail to try, and we just might succeed.  Natural selection doesn't take any BS and humans have gone through evolutionary bottlenecks before.  The fact that we exist today is the proof that every living thing that led up to us made it.  That's a legacy we cannot allow ourselves to throw away.

        "Minus two votes for the Democrat" equals "plus one vote for the Republican." Arithmetic doesn't care about your feelings.

        by G2geek on Mon Feb 06, 2012 at 07:44:59 PM PST

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    •  the collapse of civilization will come far sooner (12+ / 0-)

      than extinction as a species. generalist species tend to do better in periods of disruption and rapid change. but yeah, if it gets that bad, it's going to be in much smaller scale society if at all.

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