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View Diary: What's next for Mitt Romney? Besides pathetic excuses and desperation? (146 comments)

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  •  22,000 votes for Santorum (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Phil S 33, OhioNatureMom, pademocrat

    in MN does not amount to a crushing defeat for Romney. Especially when Romney got 776,000 votes in the FL primary.

    Organization counts for more in caucuses than in primaries. Money less.

    I delighted at the confusion and animosity among Republicans, but let's not confuse ourselves. All this means is the same that could be said of 2 days ago. This is a slugfest.

    I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

    by Satya1 on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 09:40:50 AM PST

    •  Romney is going to go all negative on Rick (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Wee Mama

      His entire campaign is based on "electability" - he's not who they want, but he can beat Obama.

      Any time he loses anything, it puts a chink in that argument.

      Oh, and Santorum got > 100K in Missouri IIRC.

      In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra En théorie, il n'ya aucune différence entre théorie et pratique, mais en pratique, il ya toujours une différence. - Yogi Berra

      by blue aardvark on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 09:50:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  >100k (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Satya1

        Still only 2.3% of eligible republican voters!

      •  Yup (0+ / 0-)

        "Oh, and Santorum got > 100K in Missouri IIRC."

        In a non-binding vote that was poorly attended. So far Santorum has won 3 caucuses and the MO thing.

        Despite the Santorum hoopla today, in terms of delegate counts (according to The Green Papers) Santorum is still in 3rd place despite "winning" 4 of the 7 states so far. Romney has more money, more delegates and has had 2X the number of votes over all states.

        I'm just waiting and starting to enjoy the show. I piped up because it seems lately as if whoever wins the primary during the week becomes the media darling for awhile and it's as if people want to draw a new trend line every week based on 1-3 contests. I don't think Romney put much into these 2 caucus states so I think calling it a "crushing blow" is a little overkill.

        This primary is a great mess to watch.

        I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

        by Satya1 on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 11:00:19 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  What's the delegate count if Florida is ... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Satya1

          ... forced to go proportional?

          I'd assume if they did, they'd go for the maximum threshold (RNC does not fix the proportional threshold at 15% like the DNC does, and different proportional states are all over the place on threshold), and lock Santorum and Paul out of any delegates.

          Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

          by BruceMcF on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 11:04:23 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I can't say (0+ / 0-)

            because I don't know the details but I suspect Gingrich won't have much luck with that. I'm mostly just following the general numbers at The Green Papers which are a fair reflection of "what we know now". If all delegates are for some reason awarded proportionately I think it is a fairly easy calculation since only 2 candidates are above the often used 15%. But if somehow it stays in the courts and some settlement is negotiated, who knows what would come of it? There is some discussion here:

            http://www.thegreenpapers.com/...

            I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

            by Satya1 on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 11:30:43 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  All delegates? (0+ / 0-)

              Pre-convention, if an objection is brought by a registered member of the Florida Republican party, there is a committee that will rule. Romney will win the fight if he doesn't need all 50 delegates, and quite possibly lose it if he does need all 50 delegates.

              The "often used 15%" is the Democratic side: its a party rule. There is no single normal threshold on the Republican side, it varies from 3% to 20%.

              Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

              by BruceMcF on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 01:35:58 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  By "all delegates" awarded proportionately (0+ / 0-)

                I meant as opposed to awarding them in a hybrid fashion by district and some at-large.

                And I am under the impression that among the states that have a proportional system 15% and 20% are the most commonly used thresholds. But threshold mechanisms are more complicated than that anyway.

                There are so many variations, that I don't watch the details that much. And I don't have time to keep up on the details.

                I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

                by Satya1 on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 06:36:18 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  The 'green papers' has the 2008 details ... (0+ / 0-)

                  ... and the 2012 rules, but in any event, the rules explicitly permit the state in a proportional state ot set the threshold where they wish, up to 20%, so if Florida is forced to allocate proportionally, they are free to do so with a threshold as high as 20%.

                  Any threshold of 14% or higher denies Paul and Santorum delegates, so it can be set anywhere above that without changing a result of 30 Romney, 20 Gingrich.

                  Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

                  by BruceMcF on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 07:54:41 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

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