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View Diary: Republican establishment getting nervous about Mitt Romney (134 comments)

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  •  Very difficult without a new entrant (0+ / 0-)

    With these four, one of them's crossing 50%.

    •  How? (6+ / 0-)

      Republican primaries are mostly proportional this year, a huge difference from previous elections.

      Ron Paul isn't going anywhere, and he can suck up 10%-12% of the delegates all by himself.

      It's now apparent that Romney can't clear 50% support in virtually any state (except Virginia, where Gingrich and Santorum aren't on the ballot).

      Gingrich is very unlikely to drop out, and should be capable of winning Georgia and several other Southern states, and go into the convention with 15% or more of the delegates.

      Santorum and Romney could easily end up with 30% to 40% apiece. It's very hard to see either of them getting above 50%

      And then there's the Super Delegates. They can readily withhold their support if they see the choices as all unacceptable.

      Besides, in my scenario, all Sarah has to do is declare her interest, and the media frenzy would drown out all other considerations.

      Yet it is not our part to master all the tides of the world, but to do what is in us for the succour of those years wherein we are set... -- Gandalf

      by dnta on Thu Feb 09, 2012 at 11:16:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Super Delegates (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dnta, Matt Z

        Unlike our party, those guys only have 3 per state. That's not likely to be enough to throw the race into confusion, unless it's really close or unless there are more than 2 candidates with sizable numbers of delegates

      •  Plus, thanks to Citizens United, (6+ / 0-)

        Santorum and Gingrich aren't going anywhere anytime soon. Each has a billionaire sugar daddy funding their campaign without limit through Super Pacs. No need for broad support, one billionaire will do it all. If Frothy didn't have his benefactor he'd have been out of the race by now as his fundraising was and remains abysmal. Same story with Newton. If it weren't for five assholes on the Supreme Court both Man on Dog Santorum and Mr. Ethics Violations would be left trying to raise money from multiple sources...with limits and disclosure. Thanks a lot assholes.

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