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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Even GOP-friendly outlets confirm Romney fade versus Obama (120 comments)

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  •  I wonder what Rasmussen is up to (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Aunt Pat, chuco35, LordMike, Matt Z

    Because I think he makes up his numbers and Fox News seems to be polling fairly.  I think their results for an Obama-Santorum race are more accurate.  

    Santorum does scare me a little bit because he is the most electable of all the candidates up there even if he's a weak candidate.  The problem is that while both Santorum and Gingrich have right wing views that are just too far right for an overwhelming majority of Americans, Gingrich is unelectable because he's so hated.  I worry that Santorum, without the Gingrich baggage and without the Romney baggage, is someone who could get elected.  

    Check out my new blog: http://socalliberal.wordpress.com/

    by SoCalLiberal on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 06:58:11 PM PST

    •  Ricky? No way on earth. (10+ / 0-)

      Every time one of these goofballs surges, we worry about him. No need, my friend.  The man is toxic in about 30 states.  Yeah, about half the voters are wildly fucked up, but this man will NEVER be President and lose to the O-Man by 6-8-10 points.

      Andrew Mellon & GOP: 'In a Depression, assets return to their rightful owners'

      by Tuffie on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 08:13:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  There's tons of baggage on (14+ / 0-)

      Santorum, there just hasn't been a reason to deploy it yet. His corruption runs as deep as his religious fanaticism.

    •  You kidding? Ricky has tons of baggage (13+ / 0-)

      Even putting aside his insane comments and offensive views, the guy was wired right into the K-Street gang of the past couple decades. He's royally corrupt.

      Also, Santorum is just not likable outside the religious right crowd. He's the sanctimonious jackass who feels the need to lecture everyone else on their faults and how he's better than they are. Actually, he's kind of like Lieberman in that regard.

    •  Fox News Polling (0+ / 0-)

      has been fair since 2000 in National Polling - they tend to find more undecided.

      Rasmussen has been more favorable than Gallup thus far on Obama's JA numbers.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 09:09:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  A Great Point... (0+ / 0-)

        Rasmussen, this cycle, has not been as Ras-like as they were in 2010. The only really eye-popping/"are you shitting me" numbers I've seen from them in the past few weeks was today's claim that Josh Mandel is only four points behind Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Everyone else (and I mean everyone) has had Brown up double digits, save for a single PPP poll that had the margin at 8.

        And they've been pretty bullish on Obama on job approval, putting him at or near 50 for a few weeks now. Though, in fairness, they also have way fewer undecideds, which means their net approvals (+1 to +4) aren't that much different.

        "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn"
        Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

        by Steve Singiser on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 11:19:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Ras tries to manipulate opinion (0+ / 0-)

          and this is all a matter of timing. They cannot cheat all the time because they would lose all credibility. They cheat only when they think it can drive the narrative in a direction which suits them. But not right before the elections, so that nothing can be proved.

        •  Ras is the same as they've always been (0+ / 0-)

          The low undecideds is their eye-rolling hallmark, eye-rolling because in reality there are always a lot more undecideds than Ras finds.  Some voters are truly undecided with no strong feelings, some have strong but very mixed feelings and therefore still answer undecided.

          The result of this is that Ras always has either Obama's disapproval way too high, or, much less often, his approval is a bit higher than everyone else's.

          Ras otherwise has been as bad as 2010, and your misperception otherwise comes from the fact they simply refrained from polling much in 2011, unlike in 2009.  You see fewer absurd polls because there are fewer polls, period.

          But Ras' few election polls have had Obama at various times trailing Gingrich or Santorum nationally, and barely leading the likes of Cain.  They also had Chris Christie with strong job approval in spring 2011 in the middle of a bunch of other pollsters showing him clearly underwater.  There have been other bad outliers, like their showing Bill Nelson in the 30s and trailing Connie Mack when no one else had anything like that.

          Ras is as bad as ever, their only "accuracy" is when their long-term trends parrot other polling in showing the same trends.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 12:57:07 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Santorum (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Matt Z, SoCalLiberal

      Can see him winning the nomination.  But cannot see Independents go for him.  He is just too religious.  I am an inactive Catholic (because being told who to vote for at Mass during the Bush/Gore election).

      Watching Fox for fun and it is making me ill!  Hannity????

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