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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Even GOP-friendly outlets confirm Romney fade versus Obama (120 comments)

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  •  A Great Point... (0+ / 0-)

    Rasmussen, this cycle, has not been as Ras-like as they were in 2010. The only really eye-popping/"are you shitting me" numbers I've seen from them in the past few weeks was today's claim that Josh Mandel is only four points behind Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Everyone else (and I mean everyone) has had Brown up double digits, save for a single PPP poll that had the margin at 8.

    And they've been pretty bullish on Obama on job approval, putting him at or near 50 for a few weeks now. Though, in fairness, they also have way fewer undecideds, which means their net approvals (+1 to +4) aren't that much different.

    "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn"
    Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

    by Steve Singiser on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 11:19:29 PM PST

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    •  Ras tries to manipulate opinion (0+ / 0-)

      and this is all a matter of timing. They cannot cheat all the time because they would lose all credibility. They cheat only when they think it can drive the narrative in a direction which suits them. But not right before the elections, so that nothing can be proved.

    •  Ras is the same as they've always been (0+ / 0-)

      The low undecideds is their eye-rolling hallmark, eye-rolling because in reality there are always a lot more undecideds than Ras finds.  Some voters are truly undecided with no strong feelings, some have strong but very mixed feelings and therefore still answer undecided.

      The result of this is that Ras always has either Obama's disapproval way too high, or, much less often, his approval is a bit higher than everyone else's.

      Ras otherwise has been as bad as 2010, and your misperception otherwise comes from the fact they simply refrained from polling much in 2011, unlike in 2009.  You see fewer absurd polls because there are fewer polls, period.

      But Ras' few election polls have had Obama at various times trailing Gingrich or Santorum nationally, and barely leading the likes of Cain.  They also had Chris Christie with strong job approval in spring 2011 in the middle of a bunch of other pollsters showing him clearly underwater.  There have been other bad outliers, like their showing Bill Nelson in the 30s and trailing Connie Mack when no one else had anything like that.

      Ras is as bad as ever, their only "accuracy" is when their long-term trends parrot other polling in showing the same trends.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 12:57:07 PM PST

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