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View Diary: Public Policy Polling: Santorum surges (176 comments)

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  •  Warning (13+ / 0-)

    Bounces like this are both predictable, and they fade.  Examples:
    Gingrich in Florida after South Carolina
    Romney in South Carolina after New Hampshire
    Obama in NH after Iowa
    Buchanan after New Hampshire in '96
    Tsongas after winning New Hampshire in '92
    Dole in New Hampshire after winning Iowa in '88
    Hart nationally after winning New Hampshire
    Bush after beating Reagan in Iowa in '80
    Obama's 10 straight wins
    Carter's win in Illinois in '80 (this is more arguable)

    A few Counter examples where bounces never faded
    Kerry winning New Hampshire in '04
    Clinton winning New York in '92
    Dukakis winning New York in '88

    In these examples the wins effectively ended the race.  It will be interesting to see what happens in Maine today.  In 1984 I was sitting in a Hart office when we learned that we won Maine - a state where had no organization in and had spent no money.  I asked a Time Magazing reporter what this meant about the upcoming Conn.  primary.  "You guys have no chance there" he said.  We blew Mondale away there.

    Romney is lucky - the calendar gives time for this bounce to fade.  Clinton in '08 wasn't so lucky after South Carolina.

    For Romney the key is to have some event happen between now and Super Tuesday. These happen in surprising ways.  For Hart it started with concerns about how he signed his name, believe it or not.

    In each of the cases cited above there was at least a 20 point swing (and in most a 30 point swing).  In fact, I predicted a tie on Tuesday night based on a 16 point swing.  This is bigger than that, but people have a tendency to return to the candidate they previously supported unless a fundamental dynamic has changed.

    In this what we may be seeing is a growing belief among the GOP that they can't win, which is why turnout is low and why the primaries are made up of very right wing conservatives.

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 08:57:07 AM PST

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    •  if so, what happens next? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, Larsstephens

      that would mean a real civil war between the rank and file and the establishment who would see santorum-Obama as a blowout in the wrong direction for them.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 09:06:00 AM PST

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      •  If there is a serious anybody but the current (8+ / 0-)

        field move, it would focus on helping Gingrich winning deligates in the South where he is ahead with the idea of getting to a contested convention.  If the Fox News poll is right and Santorum is really down over 10, that may very well happen.  

        The entire 2012 outlook has changed in 10 days.  Romney's weakness is now evident, and the economic growth has transformed how tough Obama looks.  It is hard to underestimate how much the entirity of 2012 has changed. Example: I ran  2048 simulations of 2012 on Monday and today.  Obama chances of winning have gone from 55% on Monday to 77% this morning.

        If Obama's numbers continue to strengthen every elected GOP official in this country is going to panic.  

        Each party has an underlying dread.  For Democrats it is 1972.  For Republicans it is 1964.  

        There are many similarities between '64 and today in the GOP.  Rockefeller is a carbon copy of Romney (Rocky once said that we should consider the "typical guy making 80K" - in 1964).  The base has gone off the deep end.  The truth is social conservatism is dead for anyone under 40 - and you can see this in breakdown of the exit polling.

        We may be witnessing the death throes of cultural conservatism in this country.  If Santorum wins the nomination and is destroyed in the general, the social conservatives are headed to the wilderness.

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 09:25:58 AM PST

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      •  I hate to flog my diary (6+ / 0-)

        But Santorum now commands a majority or near majority of 3 (overlapping) core GOP constituencies - "very conservative", Tea Party, and evangelicals.

        And in all 3 cases Gingrich leads Romney.

        Diary

        If Romney defeats Santorum by going negative, as I expect, those voters are going to be angry and disillusioned. If there were no overlap they'd be 114% of the GOP ( :-) ), so I'll take a guess that we're talking 30% of Republicans who are being trained to really dislike Mittens.

        In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra En théorie, il n'ya aucune différence entre théorie et pratique, mais en pratique, il ya toujours une différence. - Yogi Berra

        by blue aardvark on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 09:38:55 AM PST

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      •  Requisite pun: "Obama blows out Santorum" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        freelunch, Larsstephens

        In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra En théorie, il n'ya aucune différence entre théorie et pratique, mais en pratique, il ya toujours une différence. - Yogi Berra

        by blue aardvark on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 09:39:27 AM PST

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