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View Diary: Mitt Romney edges Ron Paul in Maine caucus straw poll (168 comments)

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  •  Did he really win? (12+ / 0-)

    Washington County (northeastern corner of the state) had to postpone its caucus until next weekend because of blizzard conditions there today.  It's only about 2.4% of the population of the entire state, but the Paul supporters will certainly show up next weekend.  Whether the Romney supporters bother or not is anybody's guess.

    Bin Laden is dead. GM and Chrysler are alive.

    by leevank on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 03:42:11 PM PST

    •  They won't be having presidential numbers (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Prachar, Tiger in BlueDenver, Taget

      The state delegation is guaranteed to have more Paul delegates than Romney's.

      •  What does (0+ / 0-)

        "they won't be having presidential numbers" mean?

        •  Their caucuses later (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Taget

          will not include a presidential straw ballot; that part is done for the state.

          •  The county will still have a straw vote (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh, Taget, itskevin

            While the state party won't "officially" include the numbers in their total, the Washington county chair (a Romney backer) has said he will hold a vote and will release the numbers.

            Since we live in the age of calculators, people will be able to figure out how the Washington County and Hancock County postponed caucus numbers impact the statewide total. Certainly the Paul people will scream to high heaven if they manage to turn out enough votes there to overtake the Romney statewide total.

            Already Maine news blogs are buzzing with pissed off Paul supporters (are there any other kind) screaming about this -- whether the state party "officially" recognizes the additional caucuses or not, the Paul people will make sure it gets coverage if it helps them.

            My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world - Jack Layton

            by terjeanderson on Sun Feb 12, 2012 at 08:04:34 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  well if it's really only 5% left out there, (0+ / 0-)

              Paul would need to win, what, 80% to get to 40% statewide?

              I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

              by James Allen on Sun Feb 12, 2012 at 11:03:12 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  The 5% number isn't necessarily accurate (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin

                Some news folks have used that number, but it isn't clear where they got it from.

                According to the state GOP, 420 of 505 towns in Maine are included in the caucus results - meaning 83% of the possible towns have reported, leaving potentially 17% of towns still to report.

                In reality, the number will be lower than that. About 40 towns are so small that it is unlikely to actually hold a caucus at all.

                The remaining roughly 4 dozen towns that still need to caucus or report results would represent about 9-10% of the towns in the state.

                But the real question is what kind of turnout there would be in these remaining towns -- there are tens of thousands of registered Republicans in the outstanding areas. Because of the small Republican turnout, in theory it is more than possible to make up the margin in the remaining towns. In reality I doubt if the Paul people will be able to motivate enough voters in these rural areas to make up even the 194 vote Romney margin, but it is certainly possible and wouldn't necessarily require getting anything close to 80% of the vote if enough voters show up.

                My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world - Jack Layton

                by terjeanderson on Sun Feb 12, 2012 at 11:41:32 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  True. nt (0+ / 0-)

      GET SMART! We are ALL Agent 99%. (note: "ALL" = -1%). ;)

      by VT ConQuest on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 03:45:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  So maybe it will be like Iowa (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      terjeanderson, Taget

      where a not Romney is declared the winner a couple of weeks later.

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