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View Diary: Mitt Romney edges Ron Paul in Maine caucus straw poll (168 comments)

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  •  Santorum won't get 30% (0+ / 0-)

    against Obama in California.  I think even Romney will struggle to get 33%.  

    If Santorum is the nominee, and the economy continues to improve, some of the numbers in the Northeast and West Coast could be record lows for the GOP.  I'm talking percentages in the mid 20s in several states.

    •  That's my main concern with Santorum (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      He sets up conservatives' mindset for an ideological battle much more strongly than do Romney (flip-flopping politician), Gingrich (all-around douche), or Paul (even odder ideological positions).

      •  I want santorum to win for that reason (3+ / 0-)
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        askew, itskevin, SaoMagnifico

        The evangelical and tea party types get a straight up conservative... who will be pounded into oblivion, which will demonstrate the country is a center-left one, not a hard right one.

        A battle against Romney, especially involving third party candidates, will lead to excuses and recriminations about not being conservative enough and all that idiocy.  The country doesn't need that.  The country needs to strongly, unequivically renounce the agenda of the extremist right (while Democrats need to re-welcome the centrists clearly back into the party).

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Sun Feb 12, 2012 at 02:22:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I mostly agree with you (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, SaoMagnifico

        Against Santorum, Obama would win a lot of center-right well educated voters, which are largely located in blue and purple states (which is why I speculate that Obama would break 70% in multiple states).  Santorum would get a huge turnout among evangelicals and among non-college educated whites, but these voters are concentrated in the South and rural areas.

        Romney's poor performance would be more equally distributed throughout the country, as he would lose votes in the South and rural areas due to poor turnout but wouldn't do as badly among well educated suburbanites, which would keep him from record lows in blue states.

        Putting aside the issue of the downballot races (which is why I'm rooting for Romney after a brutal long primary), while Romney probably would lose by less in the popular vote, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up losing states like Georgia, South Carolina or Kentucky in a landslide.  

        •  Same (1+ / 0-)
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          I don't think I see Santorum losing states like Kentucky or South Carolina. I don't see a path to 270 for him, though. If the economic recovery stalls out again and Romney rehabs his image somehow, I can definitely see a path to 270 for him, but I don't see one for Santorum. (And I do think Romney is likelier than not to lose, possibly very badly.)

          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Sun Feb 12, 2012 at 11:47:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

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